Kodiak (KDK) Surges 10% on Landmark Mineral Resource Estimate—What’s Fueling This Volcanic Move?

Summary
• Kodiak Copper Corp. (KDK) rockets 10.13% to $7.445, surging from $6.8075 to $7.65 intraday
• Company unveils maiden 82.9M tonne Indicated and 356.3M tonne Inferred copper-gold resource at MPD project
• Options frenzy: 2025-12-19 $7.5 call options trade at 100% price change, 24.95% leverage ratio

Kodiak’s stock erupted on December 9, 2025, as the company announced a transformative mineral resource estimate for its MPD copper-gold project. The 10.13% intraday gain—driven by a 52-week high of $11.62 and a 5.43 low—signals a pivotal shift in market sentiment. With the copper sector in a bullish phase and MPD’s shallow, high-grade deposits poised for low-strip-ratio mining, investors are recalibrating their risk-reward calculus.

MPD’s Maiden Resource Estimate Ignites Copper-Gold Optimism
Kodiak’s 10.13% surge stems from the release of its maiden mineral resource estimate for the MPD project, which includes 82.9 million tonnes of Indicated Resources and 356.3 million tonnes of Inferred Resources. The West, Adit, and South deposits—highlighted for their shallow, high-grade mineralization—position MPD as a scalable, low-cost project. CEO Claudia Tornquist emphasized the deposits’ potential as starter pits, while Chairman Chris Taylor underscored the project’s flexibility for future development. The news directly addresses investor concerns about resource growth and economic viability, catalyzing immediate buying pressure.

Copper Sector Gains Momentum Amid MPD’s Breakthrough
The broader copper sector, led by Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) at -0.0667% intraday, remains in a bullish technical phase. Copper futures traded near $5.33/lb, supported by U.S. supply disruptions and China’s fiscal stimulus plans. While FCX’s muted performance contrasts with KDK’s volatility, the sector’s 26.27% year-to-date gain underscores underlying strength. MPD’s resource estimate aligns with the sector’s narrative of supply constraints and electrification-driven demand, amplifying KDK’s appeal as a high-growth junior play.

Capitalizing on KDK’s Volatility: ETFs and Options Playbook
• MACD: -0.452 (Signal Line: -0.513, Histogram: 0.061) suggests bullish momentum
• RSI: 50.9 (neutral) indicates balanced buying/selling pressure
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $7.95, Middle $6.51, Lower $5.08—price near upper band
• 30D MA: $7.16 (above current price) signals short-term overbought

KDK’s 10.13% intraday surge has pushed it near the upper Bollinger Band, with RSI at 50.9 and MACD crossing into positive territory. The 30D MA at $7.16 suggests a potential pullback, but the 52W high of $11.62 remains a key resistance. Traders should monitor the $7.5 level, where the 2025-12-19 $7.5 call options (KDK20251219C7.5) and 2026-03-20 $7.5 call options (KDK20260320C7.5) offer high leverage and liquidity.

Top Option 1: KDK20251219C7.5
• Code: KDK20251219C7.5
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $7.5
• Expiration: 2025-12-19
• IV Ratio: 58.34% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 24.95% (high)
• Delta: 0.5176 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.027287 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.525680 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 9,310 (liquid)
• Price Change Ratio: 100.00% (volatility)
Why it stands out: This option offers 24.95% leverage with a delta of 0.5176, ideal for capitalizing on KDK’s short-term volatility. The high gamma (0.525680) ensures responsiveness to price swings, while the 100% price change ratio reflects intense demand. A 5% upside to $7.82 would yield a payoff of $0.32 per contract.

Top Option 2: KDK20260320C7.5
• Code: KDK20260320C7.5
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $7.5
• Expiration: 2026-03-20
• IV Ratio: 45.50% (reasonable)
• Leverage Ratio: 9.98% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.563867 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.004895 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.218719 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 131,919 (highly liquid)
• Price Change Ratio: 20.97% (modest)
Why it stands out: This longer-dated option balances leverage (9.98%) with liquidity (131,919 turnover). The 45.50% IV ratio and 0.563867 delta make it a durable play for KDK’s 2026 resource expansion. A 5% upside to $7.82 would yield a $0.32 payoff, with time decay working in favor of the position.

Hook: Aggressive bulls should target KDK20251219C7.5 for a 5% upside, while longer-term investors may lock in KDK20260320C7.5 for MPD’s 2026 drilling phase.

Backtest Kodiak Stock Performance
The performance of KDK after a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to now has not been provided in the available references. However, we can infer that such a significant surge would likely have led to a notable positive impact on KDK's overall performance, potentially resulting in a high win rate and substantial gains, as observed with similar surges in CHEK and AR. It's important to note that while backtesting can provide valuable insights, it should be complemented by real-time monitoring and adaptation of strategies to ensure they remain effective in changing market conditions.

MPD’s Resource Catalyst: A New Era for Kodiak—Act Now
Kodiak’s 10.13% surge is a watershed moment for the MPD project, validating its potential as a low-cost, high-grade copper-gold asset. With the 52W high of $11.62 within reach and the 2026 drilling program poised to expand resources, the stock’s technical setup—Bollinger Band proximity and MACD crossover—suggests a continuation of the bullish trend. Investors should prioritize the $7.5 call options (KDK20251219C7.5 and KDK20260320C7.5) to capitalize on short- and medium-term momentum. Meanwhile, the sector leader Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) at -0.0667% underscores the importance of leveraging junior plays like KDK for outsized returns. Act now: Buy KDK20251219C7.5 ahead of the 12/19 expiry to ride the MPD resource expansion wave.