KKR's Insider Buying: A Bullish Signal for Private Equity Recovery?

The private equity sector has faced a rough patch in 2025, with macroeconomic uncertainty and trade tensions rattling investor confidence. Yet, one contrarian signal stands out: Robert W. Scully, KKR’s Independent Director, recently invested $1.5 million of his personal capital into the company. This move—occurring at a time when peers like Blackstone (BX) and Carlyle (CG) trade at discounts to their fair values—suggests Scully sees value where others see risk. For long-term investors, this insider buying could mark a pivotal entry point to capitalize on KKR’s strategic repositioning and upcoming liquidity catalysts.

The Contrarian Play: Why Insider Buying Matters Now

Scully’s May 6 purchase of 13,250 shares at $113.49 per share—boosting his stake by 7.6%—is significant for two reasons. First, it represents the largest individual insider buy of KKR shares in 12 months, underscoring his conviction in the firm’s trajectory. Second, the timing aligns with KKR’s recent operational wins, such as its $2.6 billion stake in HealthEdge and the relaunch of its waste management portfolio sale. These moves signal confidence in unlocking value from KKR’s $664 billion asset base—a 15% year-over-year increase—as markets stabilize.

A Sector in Flux, but KKR is Outperforming

While the broader private equity sector has struggled—Blackstone’s shares are down 23% year-to-date—the 24% rise in KKR’s stock over the prior month reflects its execution discipline. Key metrics highlight its edge:

• Valuation Advantage: KKR’s forward P/E of 21.84 is sharply lower than its trailing P/E of 36.20, indicating investors are pricing in future earnings growth, not overpaying for past performance.
• Peer Comparison: Blackstone’s EV/EBITDA of 29.59 (vs. KKR’s implied ~24x) and Carlyle’s 15.70 EV/EBITDA suggest KKR is trading at a sweet spot—not cheap, but reasonably priced for its growth profile.
• Cash Flow Machine: KKR’s $823 million in Q1 fee-related earnings (up 23% YoY) proves its ability to monetize assets even amid market turbulence.

Liquidity Catalysts: The De-Risking Play

Skeptics may cite KKR’s 1 warning sign (unspecified), but the firm is proactively addressing risks through strategic de-risking:1. Portfolio Restructuring: The relaunch of its waste management portfolio sale aims to crystallize gains from a $50 billion asset, reducing exposure to cyclical industries.2. Healthcare Opportunities: Bidding for Sahyadri Hospital reflects KKR’s focus on stable sectors, shielding it from macroeconomic headwinds.3. Dry Powder Deployment: With $84 billion in capital to deploy (as of Q1), KKR is poised to capitalize on undervalued assets others are forced to sell.

The Contrarian’s Edge: History Repeats

Insider buying has historically preceded market rebounds. In 2020, KKR’s CEO Jean-Hughes Bernard’s $1 million purchase preceded a 40% stock rally within six months. Today, Scully’s move mirrors that pattern, with insiders collectively owning 24% of KKR’s shares—a clear alignment of interests.

Final Call: Buy Now, Reap Later

The private equity sector’s underperformance has created a rare opportunity. KKR’s strong fundamentals, strategic liquidity events, and insider-backed confidence position it to outperform peers as markets recover. While macro risks persist, KKR’s diversified portfolio and disciplined capital allocation make it a best-in-class bet for investors with a 2–3 year horizon.

Action Item: Use the current price near $119—a 15% discount to Blackstone’s valuation premium—to establish a position. Pair it with stop-losses and watch for catalysts like Sahyadri’s valuation or Medline’s IPO (co-owned with Carlyle). This is not just a stock pick—it’s a vote of confidence in KKR’s ability to lead the PE sector’s recovery.