Keysight (KEYS) Surges 8.78% on Q3 Earnings Beat and Bullish Outlook—What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Keysight (KEYS) surges 8.78% to $193.27, hitting a 52-week high of $201.49
• Q3 revenue of $1.42B and $1.91 EPS beat estimates, with Q4 guidance at $1.54B
• New $1.5B share repurchase program announced

Keysight Technologies (KEYS) is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally, surging 8.78% to $193.27 as of 6:16 PM ET. The stock’s sharp move follows the company’s Q3 earnings report, which exceeded revenue and EPS estimates, coupled with a bullish Q4 forecast. With a 52-week high of $201.49 and a 52-week low of $121.43, the stock’s volatility has spiked, reflecting renewed investor confidence in its AI and semiconductor test solutions.

Q3 Earnings Beat and Strong Q4 Guidance Ignite Rally
Keysight’s 8.78% surge is driven by its Q3 results, which delivered $1.42 billion in revenue (up 10.3% YoY) and $1.91 non-GAAP EPS (4.2% beat), alongside Q4 guidance of $1.54 billion (7.9% above estimates). The stock’s rally reflects optimism over robust demand in AI infrastructure, defense modernization, and semiconductor testing. CEO Satish Dhanasekaran highlighted 'accelerated order growth' and a $1.5 billion share repurchase program, signaling strong capital return intentions. Despite margin pressures, the market is prioritizing top-line strength and future growth prospects.

Communication Equipment Sector Mixed as Keysight Outperforms
The Communication Equipment sector, led by Cisco (CSCO) with a flat intraday price change, shows mixed momentum. Keysight’s rally outpaces peers, driven by its AI and semiconductor test solutions. While CSCO remains stagnant, Keysight’s Q3 results highlight its positioning in high-growth areas like AI infrastructure and 6G research, offering a clearer near-term catalyst for investors.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Keysight’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 162.75 (below) • RSI: 48.25 (neutral) • MACD: 0.63 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: 167.65–189.17 • Kline pattern: Short-term bullish

Keysight’s technicals suggest a continuation of its rally, with key support at $167.65 and resistance at $189.17. The stock’s 8.78% move has pushed it above its 200-day average, supported by a bullish MACD and neutral RSI. For leveraged exposure, consider XLK (XLF: 1.03X) or XLF (XLF: 1.03X) to mirror the semiconductor and communication equipment sectors.

Top Options Picks:
1. KEYS20251219C195 (Call, $195 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 34.49% (moderate)
- LVR: 29.77% (high)
- Delta: 0.4955 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.2838 (high decay)
- Gamma: 0.0228 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 43,592 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($202.93): $7.93/share
- This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a moderate bullish bet on continued momentum.
2. KEYS20251219C200 (Call, $200 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 29.36% (moderate)
- LVR: 55.28% (high)
- Delta: 0.3605 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.2183 (high decay)
- Gamma: 0.0252 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 109,454 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($202.93): $2.93/share
- Offers high leverage for a more aggressive play, assuming Keysight holds above $200.

Aggressive bulls may consider KEYS20251219C195 into a test of $200 or KEYS20251219C200 for a leveraged bet on a breakout above $201.49.

Backtest Keysight Stock Performance
Below is the interactive event-study module that summarises Keysight Technologies (KEYS.N) share-price behaviour after every ≥ 9 % single-day surge since 2022.Key takeaways• Only two ≥ 9 % up-days occurred in the 2022-2025 sample (22 Aug 2024 and 10 Apr 2025), limiting statistical power. • Median post-event drift was modest for the first two weeks; stronger gains emerged after day 18, with a 24-day cumulative excess return of c. +13 %. • Win-rate reached 100 % on several later-stage horizons (24–30 days), but significance remains low except at day 24-25—interpret cautiously given the small n. • No evidence of immediate mean-reversion; holding for ~3-4 weeks after a large upside shock historically captured most of the alpha. Feel free to explore the interactive chart for more detail or let me know if you’d like to refine parameters (e.g., different surge thresholds, include pre-2022 history, or add risk-controlled exit rules).

Bullish Momentum Intact—Position for Q4 Execution
Keysight’s rally is underpinned by Q3 outperformance and a bullish Q4 outlook, with AI and semiconductor demand driving near-term optimism. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest continued upside, though margin pressures and geopolitical risks remain. Investors should monitor the $189.17 Bollinger Band resistance and $167.65 support. For sector context, Cisco (CSCO) remains flat, underscoring Keysight’s outperformance. Position for Q4 execution by targeting KEYS20251219C195 or KEYS20251219C200 if $200 holds. Watch for a breakdown below $188.74 or a surge above $201.49 to confirm the trend.