Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week

The coming week will be pivotal for global commodity markets, with geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and supply-demand dynamics set to drive volatility. Investors should closely monitor these five charts to navigate opportunities and risks in oil, metals, agriculture, and natural gas.

1. Oil: OPEC+ Decisions vs. Trade War Pressures

The battle between OPEC+ production policies and U.S.-China trade tensions will dominate crude oil prices this week. Brent crude, which fell to $66/bbl in early April due to tariff-driven demand fears, is now hovering near $68/bbl as OPEC+ delays full output increases until 2026.

However, the risk of overproduction by members like Kazakhstan (exceeding quotas by 390 kb/d) and rising non-OPEC+ supply (Brazil, Guyana) could push prices lower. ****

Key Data:
- S&P Global estimates a $68/bbl average for 2025, but prices could drop to $65/bbl if trade wars escalate.
- Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crude and refined products remain in place, cutting exports by 15%.

2. Natural Gas: Storage Levels and LNG Exports

The U.S. Henry Hub natural gas price, projected to average $4.30/MMBtu in 2025, faces upward pressure from tight storage inventories and rising LNG exports. Cold weather in March limited spring injections, keeping stocks 4% below the five-year average.

Key Data:
- New LNG facilities like Plaquemines Phase 1 are boosting U.S. exports to 15 Bcf/d, up 7% from 2024.
- European buyers are increasingly reliant on U.S. supplies amid reduced Russian pipeline flows.

3. Copper: Trade War Premium or Structural Deficit?

Copper prices face a tug-of-war between trade policy risks and long-term demand for green energy infrastructure. The $300/ton premium to LME pricing (now at $9,000/ton) reflects fears of a U.S.-China trade war.

Yet Deutsche Bank warns that a structural deficit by 2026—due to underinvestment in mines—could push prices to $10,000/ton by late 2026. ****

Key Data:
- China’s fiscal stimulus for EVs and renewables could boost demand by 2% in 2025.
- Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, faces strikes and rising production costs.

4. Soybeans: China’s Cancellations and U.S. Export Sales

The USDA’s Weekly Export Sales report (April 24) will highlight China’s cancellations of U.S. soybean shipments—a warning sign for global ag trade.

Despite a 74% surge in soybean exports from the four-week average, China’s shift to self-sufficiency and South American competition could cap prices. ****

Key Data:
- U.S. soybean exports are projected to fall to $32.4 billion in 2025, down 15% from 2024.
- The weak dollar (at a three-year low) offers some support to U.S. ag exports.

5. Aluminum: European Smelter Restarts and Alumina Costs

Aluminum prices hinge on whether European smelters like Norsk Hydro’s Norwegian plants can ramp up production. ****

Key Data:
- Restarted smelters could add 500,000 tons/year by late 2025, easing supply tightness.
- Alumina costs remain elevated at $380/ton due to bauxite supply constraints in Australia and Guinea.

Conclusion: Navigating Volatility with Data-Driven Insights

This week’s charts underscore a commodities market at a crossroads. Oil faces a supply-demand balancing act, natural gas benefits from geopolitical demand, copper is a bet on green energy’s future, soybeans reflect trade tensions, and aluminum depends on production restarts.

Investors should prioritize:
1. Short-term oil plays: Use options to hedge against OPEC+ overproduction (e.g., selling call options at $70/bbl).
2. Long-term copper exposure: ETFs like COPX or miners like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) could outperform if the structural deficit materializes.
3. Natural gas infrastructure: Utilities like NextEra Energy (NEE) or midstream firms like Cheniere (LNG) benefit from export growth.

The IMF’s April 4 commodity price update (showing a 1% decline for 2025) suggests caution, but strategic bets on these five charts could yield outsized returns. Stay vigilant—the next week could redefine commodity markets for months to come.