Kevin O'Leary Passed SpaceX's IPO-Now He's Waiting for a $100 Trap or a $300 Vision

O'Leary passed on the IPO for liquidity, not skepticism

O'Leary did not miss SpaceX because he missed the story. He skipped the IPO because liquidity matters to me, and now he says he will watch as the stock settles over the next 30 to 60 days. After more than a quarter's drop since the June 12 debut, the trade is no longer just an IPO narrative. It is a test of whether new buyers can absorb fresh supply, including 911.5 million additional shares eligible for sale.

Value entry or liquidity trap?

SpaceX's first public earnings report gave bulls fresh data, but the shares have still softened after the first lockup expiration. That is the real split in the trade now.

Bulls can argue the selloff is flushing out weak hands and setting up a cleaner entry for patient buyers. Bears can argue it shows what happens when a high-profile stock enters a thin public market with more shares potentially hitting the tape. The key question is not whether SpaceX is impressive. It is whether demand is strong enough to absorb that supply.

If buyers step in through the washout, O'Leary is watching the right signal. If they do not, the post-IPO decline looks less like value formation and more like a liquidity problem.

The bull case depends more on Musk's ecosystem than on one quarter

O'Leary is looking at a platform story

The core bull case is not that SpaceX looks cheap based on one quarter. It is that the company may not trade like a pure launcher business for long. That is why O'Leary says SpaceX cannot be judged like a conventional company based on one quarter, and why his interest leans on Musk potentially connecting SpaceX with Tesla, AI, robotics and autonomous driving.

This is best understood as a bet on future optionality across Musk's businesses, not as proof that every part of the ecosystem is already delivering clean public-market value.

The quarter did strengthen the story

The latest results gave bulls real operating evidence. SpaceX delivered second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion against $6.9 billion consensus, posted a loss of 9 cents per share versus a 26-cent loss expected, grew Starlink to 12 million subscribers, and saw AI revenue surge about 250%.

Those figures matter because they point to strength across more than one part of the business. They also show why bulls see a larger platform potential instead of a single-track launch company.

The premium investors are paying for

Some of what bulls are paying for goes beyond launch cadence. SpaceX also added $6.7 billion in cloud contracts and is targeting a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end. That is the vision premium: the idea that SpaceX could become important infrastructure for AI, connectivity, defense, and logistics.

That narrative can dominate price before the economics fully catch up. In a thin public-market debut, story can lead fundamentals for a while.

What still has to be proven

Bears still have a credible argument: until cash generation keeps pace with ambition, the stock can remain expensive relative to the certainty outside investors actually have.

So the watchpoint is straightforward: - If operating momentum continues to improve, the ecosystem premium can hold. - If it does not, the story stays compelling but less attractive for outside investors.

O'Leary's entry zone is $100 to $110, and the stock is already close

O'Leary has drawn a line in the sand: $100 to $110 is the range where he thinks volatility could clear and a real entry could form. With SPCX at $114.98 in pre-market trading, that window is close enough that timing matters now.

Bulls and bears still disagree in the same zone

Bulls see this area as a washout zone. If the stock drifts lower and buyers step in, it would suggest accumulation rather than abandonment.

Bears see continued price discovery instead. They can point to SpaceX's weak price trend across short, medium, and long timeframes and argue that earnings improved the story, but not enough to fully offset supply and hesitation.

What would turn observation into action

O'Leary is not telling investors to chase the stock at today's level. He said he will watch as the stock settles over the next 30 to 60 days before deciding whether to build a position.

The clearest setup to watch is whether the $100-to-$110 area gains support. If it does, the bull case gets a more credible technical foundation. If it fails, the market is still signaling supply and uncertainty, not confirmed demand.