Kevin O'Leary Passed SpaceX's IPO-Now He's Waiting for a $100 to $110 Trap Door

Why a $100 to $110 Entry Would Change the Story

A $100 to $110 entry would not be a small pullback. It would mean SpaceX is being repriced from a record-setting IPO into a more normal, supply-sensitive public trade. The company went in at $135 per share, and now the market is debating whether a zone around $106.45 is just post-IPO noise or the start of a move toward $100 to $110.

The bull case is straightforward: SpaceX still has strong operating momentum, including second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion and Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million. In that view, a lower entry would simply mean buying into the platform at a better price than the $161 first-day close.

The bear case is easier to track. The first lockup expiration makes up to 911.5 million shares available, and Reuters reported that the increase in available shares is likely to keep volatility elevated. That changes the trade. Instead of a clean story-driven move, investors now have to navigate real float expansion and the possibility of insider selling.

That helps explain O'Leary's patience. He passed on his IPO allocation because liquidity matters, and he said he may start building a position as the stock settles over the next 30 to 60 days. If that range holds, it would suggest buyers are absorbing supply. If it breaks, the market may still be searching for a lower equilibrium.

The Bull Case Rests on Real Operating Data

What matters now is whether SpaceX has enough proof to defend its valuation while the float expands.

The first quarter was strong

SpaceX's first public earnings report gave bulls real numbers to point to. Second-quarter revenue rose 92% to $7.8 billion, ahead of the $6.9 billion consensus estimate. The company also reported its loss of 9 cents per share beat expectations for a 26-cent loss. For investors who want evidence rather than pure narrative, that matters.

The business is broader than launch cadence

The other reason the bull case deserves weight is the breadth of the operating base. SpaceX also said it closed $14.1 billion of contracted sales through Cloud Services Agreements and received over $6 billion in multi-year U.S. government contracts for Starshield. That makes the company look less like a simple launch story and more like a platform spanning connectivity, defense demand, and cloud infrastructure.

What O'Leary is actually waiting to buy

That broader view helps explain O'Leary's interest. He has said the bigger opportunity is Musk potentially connecting SpaceX with Tesla, AI, robotics and autonomous driving. In other words, this is not just a bet on near-term launches or quarterly revenue. It is also a bet on whether SpaceX becomes a central piece of Musk's wider technology ecosystem.

Why the Stock Still Needs to Prove It Can Absorb Supply

The operating numbers may be strong, but the price action is still saying investors should stay disciplined. SpaceX shares have fallen more than a quarter since their June 12 debut, and they were recently near $106.45. Add in weak short, medium, and long-term price trends, and the stock still looks more under pressure than firmly stabilized.

Lockup mechanics keep the bar high

The mechanics favor caution. SpaceX's first earnings release triggered a lockup arrangement that allows insiders to sell 20% of eligible locked-up stock, or up to 911.5 million shares. That is not theoretical supply. It is real selling power entering the market at the same time investors are trying to establish a new fair-value zone around $100 to $110.

A lockup expiration does not force sales, but Reuters said investors braced for a potential bout of insider stock sales that could heap ‌fresh pressure on the stock. Bulls can have the best quarter and still struggle with price discovery if supply hits before conviction builds.

The ecosystem story is still mostly forward-looking

That is where O'Leary's larger idea needs discipline. His more compelling case is Musk potentially connecting SpaceX with Tesla, AI, robotics and autonomous driving, and supporters argue valuation should look past quarterly noise to the potential for transformative tech convergence. Fair enough. But that is still a future alignment of assets, not current cash-flow proof. Even with $14.1 billion of contracted sales and Starshield contracts, investors still do not have direct proof that this broader ecosystem is already monetizing at a scale that can absorb fresh insider supply.

The watchpoint is simple: over the next 30 to 60 days, does demand soak up the new shares without the stock constantly losing ground? If the stock can hold the $100 to $110 band while insiders begin selling, supply is being absorbed. If it slips through that zone as more shares become tradeable, the downside case strengthens.

What Would Actually Trigger an Entry

O'Leary is not waiting for another bullish headline. He is waiting for the market to prove that buyers can handle the supply. In the next 30 to 60 days, the zone that matters most is $100 to $110.

Signals that would support buying

• Supply absorption: shares may stay volatile as 20% of eligible locked-up stock becomes tradeable, but the price stops getting pushed lower each time fresh supply appears insider stock sales could heap fresh pressure.
• Repeatable execution: the strong quarter has to look repeatable, with management still pointing to major $14.1 billion of contracted sales and continued progress in connectivity and AI.
• More credibility for the wider Musk ecosystem: the market starts treating the idea of linking SpaceX with Tesla, AI, robotics and autonomous driving as more than a long-dated story.

When caution would still be right

If SpaceX loses the $100 to $110 zone as insiders begin selling and demand keeps fading, that would look less like a buying opportunity and more like distribution.

For now, O'Leary's approach is simple: get involved only if new buyers are absorbing sellers, not just chasing them.