Kenvue Slides 0.76% to 15.69 Amid Prolonged Consolidation Phase

Kenvue (KVUE) declined 0.76% in the most recent session, closing at 15.69 after trading between 15.65 and 15.92 on moderate volume. This continues the consolidation phase observed in recent weeks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows Kenvue testing critical support near $15.65, with multiple daily wicks confirming demand at this level. The 2025-09-25 session formed a bearish marubozu candle signaling distribution at $17.03, establishing resistance. A cluster of small-bodied candles around $15.80-$16.00 since early October indicates indecision, while the 2025-10-01 long red candle ($16.40 to $15.82) confirmed underlying selling pressure. Key support remains the $15.65 low tested three times in six sessions, while $16.40 emerges as a critical overhead resistance barrier.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($19.12) crossed below both the 100-day ($20.18) and 200-day ($21.45) averages in mid-September, confirming a bearish long-term trend structure. Current price ($15.69) trades 18% below the 50-day MA and 27% under the 200-day MA, demonstrating sustained downward momentum. All three moving averages slope downward with the steepest descent in the 50-day, indicating accelerating selling pressure. No significant moving average support exists until the $17.80 region.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram remains entrenched in negative territory with both signal line and MACD line below zero, confirming bearish momentum. KDJ readings (K: 28.3, D: 25.1, J: 34.7) approach oversold territory but show no bullish divergence. KDJ curves remain compressed in the lower quadrant with limited directional energy, reflecting short-term consolidation without reversal signals. MACD’s bearish crossover occurred in late September and continues to widen, suggesting persistent downside risk.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day SMA $16.44 ± 2σ) contracted 32% in the past month, signaling historically low volatility. Price persistently hugs the lower band with only brief deviations, demonstrating an absence of buying pressure. The 2025-10-06 close ($15.69) sits just above the -2σ lower boundary ($15.61), potentially indicating oversold conditions. Band contraction typically precedes significant volatility expansions; a decisive break below $15.60 could trigger accelerated selling.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution days characterized the September decline, notably the 2025-09-22 session (-7.47% on 76M shares) and 2025-09-25 (-4.09% on 61M shares). Recent consolidation shows diminishing volume, with the 2025-10-06 down day registering 25M shares versus the 30-day average of 32M. This divergence suggests waning selling pressure at current levels, though the absence of high-volume reversal candles indicates buyers remain hesitant.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 31.8, nearing oversold territory (<30) but without bullish divergence. Multiple tests of the 30-35 zone since late September have failed to generate meaningful reversals. The RSI has not exceeded 45 during this period, reflecting sustained bearish momentum. While approaching levels that may attract contrarian buyers, its persistent depression warns against premature reversal expectations.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant downtrend from May’s peak ($25.17) to October’s low ($15.65) shows key retracement levels. The 23.6% level ($17.45) aligns with September resistance, while the 38.2% ($19.26) converges with the 100-day MA. Recent minor bounces consistently falter at the 23.6% level, affirming its technical significance. The major 61.8% retracement at $21.54 remains improbable near-term given current bearish momentum, requiring sustained closes above $19.25 to reestablish bullish structure.
Confluence & Divergence
Confluence exists around the $15.60-$15.70 support, where Bollinger’s -2σ band, price structure lows, and oversold KDJ readings align. However, bearish divergences persist: MACD and volume metrics lack reversal confirmation despite oversold RSI readings, while moving averages maintain steep descent angles. Volume contraction during consolidation suggests insufficient demand to catalyze recovery. Resolution likely requires a catalyst-driven break above $16.40 resistance or failure at $15.60 support.