Kenvue Shares Plunge 6.2% Over Two Sessions As Technicals Signal Strong Downtrend

Kenvue (KVUE) declined 4.09% to close at $16.17 in the most recent session, marking a two-day cumulative drop of 6.21%. This downward momentum is analyzed below through multiple technical frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
The last two sessions formed consecutive bearish candles with lower highs and lows, confirming the breakdown below the $17.50 support level established on September 24. The long wick on September 25’s candle (low: $16.14, high: $17.03) indicates rejection near $17.00, reinforcing this as immediate resistance. Key support now rests at $16.14, with a breach potentially accelerating declines toward $15.50. The August-September structure shows a descending triangle pattern resolved to the downside, suggesting sustained bearish control.
Moving Average Theory
Kenvue trades significantly below all major moving averages, with the 50-DMA ($20.12), 100-DMA ($21.30), and 200-DMA ($22.05) trending downward in bearish sequence (50 < 100 < 200). The widening gap between shorter and longer-term averages reflects strong negative momentum. A sustained move above the 50-DMA would require a 24% rally—currently improbable given the slope and distance.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (-1.22) maintains a bearish crossover below its signal line, with the histogram deepening negative since mid-September. Simultaneously, the KDJ oscillator shows %K (12) and %D (16) plunging below 20—entering oversold territory. However, this KDJ extreme lacks bullish divergence; both K and D continue making lower lows alongside price. Such convergence suggests oversold conditions may not yet signal reversal readiness.
Bollinger Bands
Price has consistently hugged the lower Bollinger Band ($16.80 ± 2σ) since September 22, with band expansion accelerating from 1.8% to 2.8% daily volatility. This "walking the band" behavior signals a strong directional downtrend. A close above the lower band ($16.80) is necessary to suggest short-term exhaustion.
Volume-Price Relationship
Down days since September 22 averaged 69M shares versus 54M on up days, confirming distribution. Notably, the 76M volume spike during the 7.47% drop on September 22 exceeded the 60M volume on the subsequent 1.59% bounce, indicating weak demand. Sustained selling pressure near $17.00 validates resistance.
Relative Strength Index
The 14-day RSI (28) entered oversold territory after the recent decline. While readings below 30 historically preceded minor rebounds in May and July, the current downtrend’s velocity and lack of bullish divergence reduce reliability. Confluence with other indicators suggests oversold conditions may persist.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the January low ($19.75) and May high ($24.50) as anchor points, price breached the 61.8% retracement level ($21.60) decisively in September. It now approaches the 78.6% extension at $15.90. Any recovery would face layered resistance at Fibonacci confluences: $17.15 (23.6% of current leg), $18.40 (38.2%), and the critical $19.60 (50%).
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of oversold KDJ, RSI, and Bollinger Band positioning increases probability of a technical bounce near $16.00, though volume and MACD trends lack reversal confirmation. A significant divergence exists between momentum oscillators (KDJ/RSI signaling oversold) and trend indicators (MA/MACD sustaining bearish alignment), implying any relief rally could be short-lived without fundamental catalysts.