Kennedy’s Surprise Exit Shakes Up Tight Harris-Trump Race

US President Joe Biden delivered a speech on the first day of the Democratic National Convention on August 19, local time, urging people to vote for Kamala Harris and calling for unity and reduced societal hatred.

The Democratic National Convention commenced on August 19, at 6 PM local time, in Chicago, Illinois. The four-day event will conclude on August 22. During this convention, Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will formally accept their nominations for presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

On August 23, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate in the 2024 US Presidential Election, announced the suspension of his campaign. Kennedy cited various grievances against the Democratic Party, particularly their decision to nominate Harris without primary elections, as his reasons for supporting Donald Trump. This move has the potential to introduce new uncertainties into the election.

Kennedy’s internal polls suggested that his candidacy might harm Trump’s chances while benefiting Harris. Despite halting his campaign, Kennedy’s influence remains, particularly in swing states where voters could still support him, although this is unlikely to significantly affect the election outcome.

Kennedy’s decision was met with strong disapproval from many family members, who viewed his support for Trump as a betrayal of the family's core values. Trump praised Kennedy during a campaign event in California and announced plans to form an independent committee to investigate presidential assassination attempts if elected.

Analysts are divided on how Kennedy’s withdrawal will impact the election and whether his supporters will shift their allegiance to Trump or Harris. Some experts argue that Kennedy’s low polling numbers mean his exit will have minimal influence on the overall election results. Nonetheless, given the tight race between Trump and Harris, even a small shift in support could be pivotal.

Currently, Harris and Trump are nearly tied in national polls. Harris maintains a slight lead in key battleground state Pennsylvania, with an average support margin of 1.5 percentage points. Trump’s polling strategist, Tony Fabrizio, anticipates that Kennedy’s supporters in swing states are more likely to back Trump rather than Harris. This development is seen as advantageous for Trump’s campaign.