Ken Griffin’s Warning: How Trump’s Trade Policies Threaten the U.S. Treasury Brand

Ken Griffin, the billionaire founder of Citadel, has long been a voice of caution in financial markets. Now, he’s turned his focus to the White House, warning that President Donald Trump’s trade policies are undermining the U.S. Treasury’s reputation as a global safe haven. In a speech at the Semafor World Economy Summit, Griffin argued that the administration’s “haphazard” approach to tariffs and rhetoric risks eroding the U.S. “brand”—a term he uses to describe the nation’s cultural, financial, and military prestige. The implications, he said, could be dire for the dollar, Treasury markets, and long-term investor confidence.

The U.S. as a “Universal Brand” Under Siege

Griffin’s critique centers on the idea that the U.S. is more than a country—it’s a brand. Its Treasury market, once the bedrock of global finance, has been shaken by recent events. The president’s announcement of the highest tariffs in generations earlier this year triggered extreme market turbulence, leading to a 90-day pause on most tariffs (excluding China) to allow negotiations. Griffin called this approach “nonsensical,” arguing that policy volatility undermines efforts to rebuild manufacturing and stabilize supply chains.

The consequences are already visible. Treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year yield hitting its largest weekly jump since 2001 in late March. This reflects investors’ growing unease about the U.S. fiscal outlook.

The Dollar’s Decline and Global Confidence

Griffin also highlighted the weakening dollar, a key pillar of the U.S. brand. The Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, has fallen 6% year-to-date, reversing a multiyear rally. This decline, he argued, signals that global investors are losing faith in the dollar’s role as a reserve currency.

The geopolitical fallout is equally concerning. Allies like Canada and Europe are now questioning U.S. reliability after policy shifts that have disrupted trade relationships. Griffin noted that while Trump’s immigration reforms and pressure on European defense spending have been positive, the trade war has created “broken glass” in markets—unnecessary disruptions that divert corporate focus from growth to supply chain logistics.

The Cost of Policy Uncertainty

The market’s reaction underscores the risks. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones have fluctuated wildly, with gains often overshadowed by volatility. For instance, the S&P 500 rose 1.2% in April but swung 1% in a single day following tariff-related news. Such instability creates a drag on investment, as businesses delay decisions until policies clarify.

Conclusion: The Long Shadow of a Tarnished Brand

Griffin’s warning is a stark reminder that financial markets are forward-looking. Once investor confidence erodes, restoring it could take decades. The data supports his concerns: Treasury yields have risen 80 basis points since early 2024, while the dollar’s decline has outpaced its 10-year average.

The cost of this uncertainty is already measurable. A weaker dollar reduces the purchasing power of U.S. consumers, while higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for governments and corporations. For investors, the message is clear: the U.S. Treasury’s “brand” is not invincible. If policies continue to prioritize short-term political gains over long-term stability, the consequences could linger far beyond any administration’s tenure.

As Griffin put it, repairing a damaged reputation “could take a lifetime”—a lifetime of diminished returns for those who once trusted the U.S. brand.