Katz: Lebanon to pay rising price for not disarming Hezbollah

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has warned Lebanon that its failure to rein in Hezbollah's attacks will lead to escalating Israeli military action, with potential territorial consequences for Lebanon. This follows a surge in Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks, including a barrage of 200 rockets and 20 drones launched toward Israel on March 11, 2026. Katz stated that if Lebanon cannot prevent Hezbollah from targeting Israeli communities, Israel will "take the territory and do it ourselves". The IDF has already expanded evacuation orders for southern Lebanon, urging civilians south of the Zahrani River to flee as operations against Hezbollah intensify.

Hezbollah's continued attacks, supported by Iran, have prompted Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon, including in Beirut's Dahiyeh district and strategic points in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese government, meanwhile, faces mounting challenges in disarming Hezbollah, which has resisted efforts to surrender its weapons while Israel occupies parts of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah's reconstitution efforts, including replenishing weapons stockpiles and rebuilding infrastructure, complicate disarmament prospects.

The economic and humanitarian toll on Lebanon is significant. Southern Lebanon's destruction has disrupted civilian life, with evacuation orders exacerbating displacement. The Lebanese state, already weakened by a seven-year economic crisis, struggles to fund reconstruction or replace Hezbollah's social services, which have historically bolstered its support base. According to research, international actors, including the U.S. and European allies, have emphasized conditional support for Lebanon's institutions, contingent on progress in curbing Hezbollah's influence.

Katz's warnings underscore a precarious stalemate: Lebanon's inability to assert control over Hezbollah risks further Israeli escalation, while Hezbollah's military reconstitution threatens regional stability. The financial and political costs for Lebanon—both from conflict and lost international aid—appear to be rising.