Kaspa Struggles Below $0.0948 Resistance Amid Bearish Momentum

Kaspa has been experiencing a period of stagnation, oscillating between brief upward movements and swift rejections. As the new week begins, traders are closely monitoring the $0.075 level to determine if the bulls have the strength to push through or if this is merely a pause before another decline.

Analyzing the current technical setup provides a clearer picture of what to expect. On the 4-hour chart, Kaspa remains below its 200-day moving average, which is around $0.0948. This long-term resistance has not been breached for nearly two months, and the price has not closed above it since early May. A large descending channel, formed from the highs of early 2024, continues to dominate the structure, with every attempt to break out being rejected. Short-term bounces typically encounter resistance between $0.085 and $0.090 before fading. The most recent bounce from the June low around $0.06 has stalled just under $0.078. This price compression below key moving averages indicates indecision or accumulation, but the overall trend remains bearish unless there is a significant change.

Examining the weekly technical indicators reveals that the MACD is at -0.013, indicating bearish momentum. The CCI is at -50.6096, suggesting a slightly oversold condition but not an extreme one. The ATR is at 0.0191, showing high recent volatility and range-bound action. The Ultimate Oscillator is at 41.425, indicating a neutral zone with no strong momentum. The ROC is at 20.779, reflecting a mild upside bounce from June’s local bottom. These indicators collectively suggest that Kaspa is not in a trending move yet. Momentum is weak, volatility persists, and the bounce off $0.06 has not flipped the broader structure to bullish. The MACD staying negative confirms that any bullish scenario is not yet confirmed, while the CCI near -50 signals some selling pressure but not at panic levels.

For the week of July 7–13, the price action of Kaspa could unfold in several scenarios. In a bearish scenario, if KAS fails to hold above $0.075 and breaks back below $0.072, it could move toward the $0.065 support zone. Further downside could target $0.060 again, especially if Bitcoin turns bearish. In a realistic scenario, sideways movement is likely to continue between $0.073 and $0.080. The price may test $0.081–$0.083, but without increased volume or a Bitcoin rally, a breakout is unlikely. In a bullish scenario, a clean breakout above $0.085 could flip momentum and open up the path to $0.095 and eventually $0.10. However, for this to happen, bulls need to reclaim the 200-day MA with confidence, something they have failed to do since May.

Currently, Kaspa has not broken out of its long-term pattern. While there are some signs of strength, the bulls have not followed through in weeks. This week may just extend the chop unless Bitcoin triggers a broader market rally. However, if Kaspa does break $0.085 with strong volume, the chart could change quickly. For now, patience is key.