Kashmir Tourism Under Siege: How Militant Attacks Threaten Economic Recovery

The April 22, 2025, militant attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed at least 26 tourists and injured 17, marks a stark escalation in violence targeting the region’s tourism sector. This incident, occurring in a scenic valley known for its pine forests and snow-capped peaks (), threatens to derail a fragile economic recovery driven by a tourism boom. For investors, the attack raises critical questions about the sustainability of tourism as a growth engine in a region where militancy and geopolitical tensions persist.

Tourism’s Fragile Revival

Prior to the attack, Kashmir had emerged as a tourism success story. After the Indian government revoked the region’s special status in 2019, tourism was prioritized as a tool to rebuild the economy. Visitor numbers surged:

• 2022: 18.88 million tourists
• 2023: 21.18 million tourists
• 2024: 23.59 million tourists (Chief Minister’s data)

The Economic Survey Report 2024 noted a 27-fold increase in foreign tourists, from 1,614 in 2021 to 43,654 in 2024. Iconic attractions like the Gulmarg Gondola, which generated ₹103 crore in 2024, and the Srinagar International Marathon (which raised ₹39.26 lakh) highlighted the sector’s potential.

The Attack’s Immediate Impact

The April 2025 attack targeted civilians in Baisaran meadow, a popular tourist spot. Eyewitness accounts described scenes of chaos, with victims pleading for help and bodies transported on horseback. The timing—days before the Amarnath Yatra pilgrimage, which typically attracts over 500,000 pilgrims—raised alarms about long-term economic fallout:

• Direct Revenue Loss: The pilgrimage generates millions in revenue from accommodation, transport, and local spending. A sharp decline in participation could erase ₹100 crore+ in annual income.
• Tourist Confidence: The attack reignited fears of instability. Srinagar’s tulip gardens, which drew 810,000 visitors in just 26 days in . 2025, now face a potential drop in attendance.

Historical Precedent and Long-Term Risks

Kashmir’s tourism sector has faced repeated setbacks. Attacks on pilgrims in 2000, 2001, and 2017 caused prolonged declines in visitor numbers. The June 2024 bus ambush in Reasi (killing nine) foreshadowed the current crisis. The April 2025 attack, described by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah as “much larger than anything we’ve seen directed at civilians in recent years,” signals a strategic escalation:

- The 2000 attack killed 30 pilgrims, causing a decade-long slump in participation.
- A 2017 attack near Batmaloo killed eight, deterring tourists.

Government Response and Investor Considerations

The Indian government has vowed to strengthen security, deploying military reinforcements and vowing harsh consequences for perpetrators. However, heightened militarization risks deterring tourists. Investors must weigh:

1. Security Costs: Increased troop deployment and infrastructure investments (e.g., checkpoints) could divert funds from tourism development projects.
2. Geopolitical Risks: Pakistan’s alleged support for militants and cross-border tensions add volatility.
3. Local Livelihoods: Over 2 million households in rural Kashmir rely on tourism. A sustained decline could fuel economic despair and further unrest.

Conclusion: A Fragile Growth Story

The attack underscores the precarious balance between tourism-driven growth and regional instability. While Kashmir’s visitor numbers grew by 25% between 2022 and 2024, the April 2025 incident threatens to reverse this momentum.

Key data points:
- The Gulmarg Gondola, a symbol of tourism’s potential, brought in ₹103 crore in 2024.
- Foreign tourist arrivals surged from 1,614 in 2021 to 43,654 in 2024—a 27-fold increase.
- The Amarnath Yatra alone supports over ₹100 crore in annual revenue.

For investors, the risks are clear: a prolonged decline in tourism could erase years of economic progress. While infrastructure projects (e.g., 1,914 initiatives in 2024–25) aim to diversify the economy, reliance on pilgrimage and leisure tourism remains vulnerable to violence. Until sustained security and geopolitical stability are achieved, Kashmir’s tourism revival will remain a precarious bet.