KAS Tests Demand Zone as Hashrate Rebounds and Upgrades Loom

• Kaspa trades near $0.026, a historical demand zone, following an 87% drawdown from its all-time high of $0.2075.
• The network hashrate has stabilized and recovered to approximately 320 PH/s, suggesting miners are finding equilibrium at lower margins.
• Daily active addresses have tripled to roughly 3,000, indicating renewed user engagement despite significant price weakness .
• Upcoming upgrades, including the Toccata hard fork and Casplex Layer 2, aim to transform Kaspa into programmable Layer 1 blockchain.
• Miner daily income has collapsed by 96% since 2024, creating persistent sell pressure as operators cover operational costs .

Kaspa (KAS) is currently navigating a critical support level near $0.026, a zone that has historically acted as a strong foundation for the asset . This price action represents a significant 87% decline from the token's all-time high of $0.2075, reflecting broader bearish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market . Despite the severe price correction, underlying network metrics suggest a divergence between market pricing and fundamental activity . The asset is trading within a historical demand range of $0.0219 to $0.0279, an area that previously triggered a massive rally following a liquidity sweep .

Investors are closely monitoring whether this support level can hold against sustained selling pressure. A break below the $0.025 mark could expose the asset to a retest of the $0.0115 liquidity sweep low . Conversely, holding this zone may allow for consolidation and potential upside if buying volume increases . The asset has exhibited a negative beta relative to Bitcoin, dropping more sharply during recent market dips, which highlights its sensitivity to risk-off shifts . The Fear and Greed Index sits at 38, indicating a fearful market environment that continues to weigh on altcoin performance .

Why Is Hashrate Recovering Despite Miner Income Collapse?

Mining profitability on the Kaspa network has deteriorated significantly, with daily miner income plummeting by 96.42% from its 2024 peaks . This collapse in revenue has forced many miners to shut down equipment or sell earned coins to cover operational costs, creating persistent sell-side pressure . The network hashrate reflected this capitulation, falling from 710.17 PH/s in August 2025 to a low of 276.9 PH/s in late July 2026 .

However, the network hashrate has recently stabilized and recovered to approximately 320 PH/s, signaling a shift in miner behavior . This recovery suggests that the reduced network difficulty has improved marginal profitability for remaining operators, encouraging them to reconnect assets . Major mining pools, including Humpool, F2Pool, and ViaBTC, continue to secure the network, providing a baseline of security despite the economic headwinds .

An additional supply overhang looms on the horizon. An upcoming miner reward reduction scheduled in roughly 29 days is expected to further compress miner revenues . This event could exacerbate selling pressure as miners attempt to cover costs before the adjustment takes effect . The deflationary supply structure, with 27.62 billion of 28.7 billion tokens already in circulation, limits future dilution risks but does not immediately alleviate current miner distress .

How Do Network Upgrades Impact Long-Term Value?

Kaspa is undergoing a significant technological evolution aimed at expanding its utility beyond simple transactional speed . The introduction of smart contracts via the Casplex Layer 2 has enabled developers to build decentralized finance protocols and non-fungible token platforms directly on the network . This transition marks a pivotal shift from a pure proof-of-work ledger to a fully programmable Layer 1 blockchain .

The upcoming Toccata hard fork is expected to further transform the ecosystem by introducing SilverScript smart contracts and KRC-20 token support . These upgrades are designed to increase developer activity and network usage, which could drive stronger demand for the KAS token . Additionally, the integration of Groth16 and RISC Zero cryptographic verifiers will bring zero-knowledge applications to the network, enhancing privacy and scalability .

User engagement metrics support the potential impact of these upgrades. Daily transactions have remained stable at roughly 30,000, while daily active addresses have jumped from below 1,000 to approximately 3,000 in early August . This increase in participation often precedes price appreciation and suggests growing adoption of the network's capabilities . Ownership is relatively diversified, with the top 1,000 wallets controlling only 58.8% of the supply, contrasting with more concentrated competitors .

Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite the price weakness. The asset holds highest bullish sentiment score on CoinMarketCap, with 90.5% of voters favoring the project. On-chain data reveals that 63.2% of the circulating supply has been held for at least six months, reducing immediate sell pressure . The largest known holder has continued to accumulate, adding 850,000 KAS recently, which signals strong conviction among major stakeholders .

Technically, a confirmed breakout above the $0.040 resistance level could target $0.060 to $0.065, while a sustained move above $0.088 might aim for $0.15 . Long-term forecasts suggest potential highs of $0.15 by the end of 2026, contingent on the successful delivery of these technological catalysts . However, failure to hold support at $0.030 could lead to a retest of lower levels, highlighting the delicate balance between improving fundamentals and bearish market sentiment .