Kamino Finance/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• The 24-hour session saw a sharp decline from $0.0648 to $0.0591, with bearish momentum intensifying after 19:30 ET.
• Key support levels identified at $0.0610–$0.0615 and $0.0590–$0.0595, with RSI dipping into oversold territory near 30.
• Volume surged early, but diverged with price as the decline continued, suggesting potential exhaustion.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at $0.0638 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.06536 before closing at $0.0591 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. The 24-hour low was $0.05877. Total volume was 53,347,147 and total turnover amounted to $3,393,650.

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a bearish bias with consistent lower closes after key resistance levels were breached. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET as price collapsed from $0.0628 to $0.06074, signaling potential capitulation. A doji at $0.06124 on the overnight session hinted at indecision, while the price found temporary support at $0.0610–$0.0615 before breaking down again.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart saw the 20-period line fall below the 50-period, forming a death cross. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) appear unaligned due to the lack of daily data, but the short-term trend is decisively bearish. RSI dropped to near 30 in the overnight session, suggesting oversold conditions, while MACD remained negative with a flattening histogram, indicating waning bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction between 20:00 and 22:00 ET, followed by a breakout to the downside, suggesting increased volatility. Price closed near the lower band multiple times, indicating weakness. Fibonacci retracements from the high of $0.06536 show 61.8% at $0.0616 and 78.6% at $0.0595—both levels were pierced during the session.

Volume and turnover were highest during the initial decline (17:00–19:30 ET), peaking at $400k in turnover at 19:15 ET. Turnover then diverged with price during the subsequent decline, which could signal a potential rebound or buying the dip activity near key support levels.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the noted bearish divergence and oversold RSI readings, a potential backtest strategy could involve detecting bottom divergences in the MACD and RSI to identify reversal buy signals. A bottom divergence typically occurs when the price makes a lower low but the momentum indicator (e.g., RSI or MACD) makes a higher low, suggesting a potential reversal. A backtest from 2022-01-01 to present could test the effectiveness of entering long positions on such divergences, using a 20- and 50-period moving average for trend confirmation and Bollinger Bands for volatility-based exit signals.