Kamino Finance/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price fell 9.5% over 24 hours, closing at 0.05887 from 0.061.
• Strong bearish momentum with RSI near oversold, suggesting potential reversal.
• Bollinger Band contraction indicates volatility may soon expand.
• Volume increased sharply in late trading, signaling heightened interest.

Market Overview

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.061 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.05887 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14, reaching a high of 0.06126 and a low of 0.0568. The total volume was 34,110,008 and the total turnover was 2,062,031.71. The price action suggests a bearish trend with strong downward pressure.

Structure & Formations

The price of KMNOUSDT has formed a clear bearish structure, with a descending triangle pattern emerging over the last 48 hours. Key support levels appear to be consolidating around 0.0585 and 0.0575, while resistance is found at 0.0595. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 0.05785, which could signal further downward momentum if confirmed by a break below the support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending downward, indicating a continuation of the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are also trending downward, suggesting that the overall trend remains bearish. The 50-period moving average is currently acting as resistance around 0.0591, and a break below the 200-period MA at 0.0589 may confirm the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line is negative and trending downward, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The RSI is currently at 30, indicating that the pair may be oversold, which could lead to a short-term bounce. However, given the strong bearish trend, any rebound may be short-lived and could serve as an entry point for further selling.

Bollinger Bands

The price has been trading near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the day, indicating a period of low volatility. A contraction in the band width has been observed, suggesting that a breakout or expansion in volatility may be imminent. If the price breaks below the lower band, it could signal a continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late evening hours, with a notable increase in turnover around 0.0573. The divergence between price and volume suggests that while the price is falling, the level of participation is increasing, which may indicate a potential reversal or at least a pause in the decline. Investors should watch for confirmation from further price action and volume dynamics.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0568 to 0.0595, key levels are forming around 0.0581 (61.8%) and 0.0576 (38.2%). If the price breaks below 0.0576, it may target the next major support at 0.0568. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level at 0.0590 appears to be a critical resistance for a potential rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

To rigorously test the recent bearish pattern in KMNOUSDT, we propose a backtest based on the "Hold until Resistance Level Breakout" strategy with the following parameters:

• Stock(s): We will evaluate KMNOUSDT, a liquid pair with sufficient 15-minute OHLCV data.
• Resistance-level exit rule: We will use Option (a): Breakout above the most recent swing-high (N = 20 periods).

This strategy will detect every Bullish Harami formation since 2022 and generate open/close signals when the price breaks above the 20-period swing high. Performance metrics, including total return, win rate, and maximum drawdown, will be calculated and visualized to evaluate the strategy's effectiveness in the context of KMNOUSDT’s current bearish trend and identified resistance levels.