Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined from 0.0711 to 0.0641 on 24-hour OHLC, with a -10.0% close to open drop.
• RSI hit oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price near the lower band.
• Volume surged in the final 6 hours as price hit fresh lows, signaling accumulation.
• A key support level forms around 0.0641–0.0643, with 0.0636–0.0638 next critical.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.0711 (12:00 ET - 1) and closed at 0.0641 at 12:00 ET, with a daily high of 0.0725 and low of 0.0636. Total volume was 92,662,569.00, with a notional turnover of ~$6,599,622. The price action indicates bearish momentum, with a strong downward bias forming over the last 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price formed multiple bearish engulfing patterns and long lower shadows in the 15-minute chart, confirming weak buyers and strong sellers. The breakdown below key support at 0.0690 led to a cascade of follow-through selling. A bearish trendline from 0.0725 to 0.0643 has been in place, with price currently resting at its lowest point in this trend. Resistance levels to watch are 0.0651 (38.2% Fibonacci), 0.0660 (61.8%), and 0.0670 (psychological).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirming bearish momentum. Daily data shows price also below 50/100/200 SMA, indicating a broader bearish bias. The 50-day MA sits at ~0.0675, which could be a target for a short-term bounce or rejection point.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line on a bearish crossover, with negative bars expanding in the last 6 hours. The RSI hit 27, entering oversold territory, which could offer a short-term rebound in the near term. However, the oversold condition alone may not be enough to reverse the trend, especially if volume does not confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as Bollinger Bands widened from ~0.0008 to ~0.0009 in the last 6 hours. Price closed near the lower band at 0.0641, suggesting weak conviction in the current level. A sustained close below the lower band could trigger further downside, but the band contraction earlier in the day suggests potential for a mean reversion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the final 6 hours, reaching 35M+ in the last 15-minute candle, while turnover increased in line. The price-volume correlation was strong, with falling prices and rising volume reinforcing the bearish thesis. However, a divergence may develop if volume declines while price continues to fall, suggesting exhausted selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing from 0.0636 to 0.0725, the 38.2% retracement is at 0.0651 and the 61.8% at 0.0660. The 0.0636 level is the most immediate support, followed by 0.0632. A break below 0.0636 could target 0.0627–0.0628. On the daily chart, the 50% retrace from the recent high is at 0.0677, which could be a key pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish momentum and oversold RSI, a mean-reversion strategy could be considered: opening a long position if price closes above 0.0643 with a confirmed bullish engulfing pattern, while using a stop loss just below 0.0636. A target of 0.0651 aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the 50-period MA. This hypothesis integrates RSI oversold conditions, volume confirmation, and Fibonacci levels to identify a low-risk, high-reward setup in a broader downtrend.