Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-05

• Price surged 18.5% in 24 hours, closing near session highs amid strong bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions, hinting at potential consolidation.
• Volume spiked to $1.2B in early ET hours, confirming the breakout.
• Key resistance appears to form near 0.08676–0.08723, with support at 0.0852–0.08424.
• Bollinger Bands show significant expansion, indicating high volatility and trend strength.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.0731 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 0.08624 before closing at 0.08611 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. Total 24-hour volume reached 57.7M KMNO with notional turnover of $459.5M, reflecting a sharp increase in both activity and price.

Structure & Formations

The price formation over the past 24 hours displayed a strong bullish continuation pattern. A series of higher highs and higher lows formed after the price broke above the 0.08463–0.08503 consolidation range. Notable candlestick patterns included a bullish engulfing pattern around 0.08021–0.08081 and a strong piercing line at 0.08538–0.08418, reinforcing the breakout. The price is now consolidating near a key resistance cluster around 0.08676–0.08723 and may test 0.08748 next. Support appears to be holding at 0.0852 and 0.08424.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both show steep upward slopes, confirming the bullish trend. The 20-period MA is currently around 0.0859, while the 50-period MA is at 0.0853, suggesting that the price is comfortably above both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.0834, the 100-period at 0.0826, and the 200-period at 0.0813. The price is well above all three, indicating a strong uptrend with a low risk of short-term reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line early on, with a positive histogram that has remained bullish for most of the session. The MACD line is currently at 0.0024 with the signal line at 0.0012, indicating strong upward momentum. The RSI has surged to 70, entering overbought territory, but has not yet peaked. This suggests that while momentum is strong, a short-term pullback may be imminent. A break below 60 on the RSI could trigger a retest of key support levels around 0.08424.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly over the past 24 hours, reflecting heightened volatility. The price has remained within the upper band for the majority of the session, indicating a strong bullish trend. The upper band currently sits at 0.0878, while the lower band is at 0.0835. The price is now trading near the upper band, suggesting that it may either continue to push higher or experience a retracement toward the middle band, currently at 0.0856.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover have shown a clear alignment with the price action. The highest volume spike occurred between 02:45 ET and 03:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp move from 0.08021 to 0.08081. This was followed by a sustained increase in volume as the price climbed to 0.08624. The notional turnover reached a peak of $36.5M during that period. The most recent 15-minute candle at 16:00 ET had a volume of 832,484 KMNO and a turnover of $72,170, showing continued buyer participation. However, a divergence between price and volume could indicate a weakening trend if not followed by strong volume in the next session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.08021 to 0.08624, key levels include 38.2% at 0.0835, 50% at 0.0833, and 61.8% at 0.0831. The price currently appears to be consolidating near the 76.4% level. On the daily chart, the last major swing from 0.08138 to 0.08318 shows critical levels at 38.2% (0.0826), 50% (0.0823), and 61.8% (0.0820). These levels could provide key support or resistance in the event of a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when the 20-period moving average crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the recent 15-minute swing low and a take-profit at the nearest Fibonacci extension level (127.2% or 161.8%). The strategy would also require confirmation via bullish divergence in RSI and a closing price above the upper Bollinger Band. Given the recent MACD and RSI signals, this approach could have yielded a profitable trade in the last 24 hours, especially if entry was made around 03:00 ET when the 20/50 crossover was first confirmed.