Kamala Harris Shakes Up 2024 Race: Can the Underdog Lead the Pack?
Saturday, Aug 17, 2024 5:00 am ET
“We will not look back!” Recently, following her nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris fervently embraced her campaign slogan, leading the polls by a small margin. This move breaks the usual conservative stance of vice-presidential continuity and adds a new twist to the current U.S. presidential election. With Harris newly in the race, the extent to which she can reshape the electoral landscape remains under close scrutiny.Recasting the U.S. Election Dynamics
“This is in the best interest of my party and the nation,” stated President Joe Biden as he announced his withdrawal from the race. Within just two weeks, on August 5, Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee, ushering unprecedented uncertainty into the presidential election. The fierce competition between the two major parties has now escalated to a fever pitch.According to recent polling data released on August 14, Harris currently leads with 46.1% support, outpacing former President Donald Trump by 2.7 points, with a noticeable upward trend. Another poll indicates Harris has a 4-point lead over Trump in three pivotal swing states, bucking previous trends.In the U.S. presidential elections, states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are critical swing states. "Winning the swing states means winning the White House." While Harris leads in three of these states, her ability to maintain and expand this lead remains uncertain. Trump is reportedly allocating about 98% of his campaign advertising budget to five swing states, aiming for a blitz campaign. Currently, Trump's campaign ad spending in these states stands at $83 million, significantly more than Harris's $39 million.During an August 9 rally, Harris acknowledged, “We cannot overlook a very important fact; we are undoubtedly running as the underdog.” Assistant researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Peipei Shi, commented that the Democratic Party’s current "underdog" status is due to multiple factors: current economic policies failing to address numerous U.S. economic issues, rising living costs, and economic pressure. These are major attack points for Trump's campaign. Additionally, the Democratic stance on immigration, gun control, and border security has stirred unease among some voters. Furthermore, the Republican party's past campaigning strength in key swing states adds to the challenge. “As a woman and a person of color, Harris may also face implicit biases and stereotypes from some voters, which could affect her support rate.”Can this perceived underdog status be reversed? Shi suggests that economic policy is a crucial issue for American voters. Harris plans to unveil her economic policy outline in the coming days, which could influence voter perception and possibly turn the tide. Moreover, her choice of running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who has extensive political experience, will help balance and complement Harris within the Democratic political spectrum, attracting support from both urban progressives and rural moderates, crucial groups for this election.As the first woman of color to lead a major party in a presidential bid in U.S. history, Harris holds an advantage among female and minority voters. Furthermore, her relative novelty as a presidential candidate has kindled voter expectations for change.Joint polling data from July showed Harris had a 55% support rate among African Americans and 38% among Hispanic Americans, compared to Trump's 15% and 37%, respectively. Analysts believe that for many families focused on economic, immigration, and educational issues, Harris’s background as the “daughter of immigrants” resonates deeply.Occupying 19.5% of the U.S. population, Hispanics constitute the largest minority group and a critical voting bloc. Harris’s entry into the race has prompted a sense of unity among these communities, with a Voto Latino survey showing over half of initially third-party voting Hispanic youth now opting to support the Democratic candidate.Harris’s diverse background, coupled with her political experience, fundraising ability, and extensive financial connections, bolster her support within the Democratic Party. Her staunch stance on issues like abortion rights has also garnered support from voters prioritizing gender equality and women’s rights. As Shi highlights, Harris’s direct approach to countering Trump’s attacks and policy propositions makes her a potent and clear-visioned candidate, changing voter attitudes and preferences.However, with less than 100 days until the election, Harris's late start in the presidential race could be a double-edged sword. She must quickly consolidate support within her party and efficiently mobilize campaign resources. Should she manage to do so, she stands a strong chance of succeeding in the race.Economic Policy as a Decisive Factor
The unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate in July has shaken the stock market and heightened fears of an economic recession. For American voters, the economic policies championed by Harris and Trump will significantly sway their voting choices.Overall, Harris has to some extent reshaped the 2024 U.S. election campaign, adding new variables to the bipartisan political contest. The outcome of this U.S. election remains fraught with uncertainty.
“This is in the best interest of my party and the nation,” stated President Joe Biden as he announced his withdrawal from the race. Within just two weeks, on August 5, Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee, ushering unprecedented uncertainty into the presidential election. The fierce competition between the two major parties has now escalated to a fever pitch.According to recent polling data released on August 14, Harris currently leads with 46.1% support, outpacing former President Donald Trump by 2.7 points, with a noticeable upward trend. Another poll indicates Harris has a 4-point lead over Trump in three pivotal swing states, bucking previous trends.In the U.S. presidential elections, states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are critical swing states. "Winning the swing states means winning the White House." While Harris leads in three of these states, her ability to maintain and expand this lead remains uncertain. Trump is reportedly allocating about 98% of his campaign advertising budget to five swing states, aiming for a blitz campaign. Currently, Trump's campaign ad spending in these states stands at $83 million, significantly more than Harris's $39 million.During an August 9 rally, Harris acknowledged, “We cannot overlook a very important fact; we are undoubtedly running as the underdog.” Assistant researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Peipei Shi, commented that the Democratic Party’s current "underdog" status is due to multiple factors: current economic policies failing to address numerous U.S. economic issues, rising living costs, and economic pressure. These are major attack points for Trump's campaign. Additionally, the Democratic stance on immigration, gun control, and border security has stirred unease among some voters. Furthermore, the Republican party's past campaigning strength in key swing states adds to the challenge. “As a woman and a person of color, Harris may also face implicit biases and stereotypes from some voters, which could affect her support rate.”Can this perceived underdog status be reversed? Shi suggests that economic policy is a crucial issue for American voters. Harris plans to unveil her economic policy outline in the coming days, which could influence voter perception and possibly turn the tide. Moreover, her choice of running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who has extensive political experience, will help balance and complement Harris within the Democratic political spectrum, attracting support from both urban progressives and rural moderates, crucial groups for this election.As the first woman of color to lead a major party in a presidential bid in U.S. history, Harris holds an advantage among female and minority voters. Furthermore, her relative novelty as a presidential candidate has kindled voter expectations for change.Joint polling data from July showed Harris had a 55% support rate among African Americans and 38% among Hispanic Americans, compared to Trump's 15% and 37%, respectively. Analysts believe that for many families focused on economic, immigration, and educational issues, Harris’s background as the “daughter of immigrants” resonates deeply.Occupying 19.5% of the U.S. population, Hispanics constitute the largest minority group and a critical voting bloc. Harris’s entry into the race has prompted a sense of unity among these communities, with a Voto Latino survey showing over half of initially third-party voting Hispanic youth now opting to support the Democratic candidate.Harris’s diverse background, coupled with her political experience, fundraising ability, and extensive financial connections, bolster her support within the Democratic Party. Her staunch stance on issues like abortion rights has also garnered support from voters prioritizing gender equality and women’s rights. As Shi highlights, Harris’s direct approach to countering Trump’s attacks and policy propositions makes her a potent and clear-visioned candidate, changing voter attitudes and preferences.However, with less than 100 days until the election, Harris's late start in the presidential race could be a double-edged sword. She must quickly consolidate support within her party and efficiently mobilize campaign resources. Should she manage to do so, she stands a strong chance of succeeding in the race.Economic Policy as a Decisive Factor
The unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate in July has shaken the stock market and heightened fears of an economic recession. For American voters, the economic policies championed by Harris and Trump will significantly sway their voting choices.Overall, Harris has to some extent reshaped the 2024 U.S. election campaign, adding new variables to the bipartisan political contest. The outcome of this U.S. election remains fraught with uncertainty.