Kalshi Predicts 66% Probability of US Government Shutdown This Year

The prediction market Kalshi is currently forecasting a 66% probability of a US government shutdown this year. A stopgap spending bill intended to prevent a shutdown failed to pass in the US Senate, contributing to this high likelihood.

The prediction market Kalshi has forecasted a 66% probability of a U.S. government shutdown this year, following the Senate's rejection of a stopgap spending bill. The bill, intended to prevent a shutdown, failed to pass in the U.S. Senate on Friday, September 19, 2025, by a vote of 44-48 US Government Shutdown Looms After Senate Rejects Stopgap Bill^[2]. The measure faced near universal opposition from Democrats who demanded increased healthcare funding.

The failure of the stopgap bill has raised concerns about a potential shutdown, which would leave government workers unpaid and disrupt a wide range of services. Senate Majority Leader John Thune blamed Democrats for increasing the chances of a shutdown, stating, "Eventually, it's going to be an up or down vote on whether they want to keep the government open" US Government Shutdown Looms After Senate Rejects Stopgap Bill^[2].

Democrats had demanded additional funding for healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act and the restoration of funding cut from the Medicaid healthcare program for lower-income Americans. However, these efforts failed 47-45 US Government Shutdown Looms After Senate Rejects Stopgap Bill^[2]. The temporary spending bill included $88 million to protect lawmakers, executive branch officials, and the Supreme Court in the aftermath of conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s assassination. Only 43 Republicans and one Democrat, Senator John Fetterman, voted for it, far short of the 60 votes needed to pass the Senate US Government Shutdown Looms After Senate Rejects Stopgap Bill^[2].

The annual funding debate covers only about one-quarter of the federal government’s $7 trillion budget, which also includes mandatory programs such as Social Security and Medicare, as well as payments on the nation’s $37.5 trillion debt US Government Shutdown Looms After Senate Rejects Stopgap Bill^[2]. The same stopgap bill passed the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives by a vote of 217-212. House Republican leaders said they would not return until after October 1, in a move to pressure Senate Democrats US Government Shutdown Looms After Senate Rejects Stopgap Bill^[2].

Kalshi’s prediction of a 66% probability of a shutdown is based on the current political climate and the ongoing negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. The prediction market has seen significant growth in its trading volume, with $1.3 billion in monthly trading volume, outpacing rival Polymarket, which stands at $773 million Kalshi surges to 62% of global prediction market share^[1]. Kalshi operates as a licensed U.S. exchange and has recently been deepening its ties to the crypto ecosystem by adding support for chains.

The prediction market platform announced the new initiative through its social media channels. The hub is a part of its move to develop prediction market infrastructure based on blockchain, in conjunction with the Solana network and Base, a layer-2 solution by Coinbase Kalshi surges to 62% of global prediction market share^[1].