Kalshi's $5B Bet: Can Global Expansion Outpace Regulatory Backlash?

Kalshi, a U.S.-based prediction market platform, has secured $300 million in a funding round that values the company at $5 billion, marking a significant leap from its $2 billion valuation in June 2025 Prediction Market Kalshi Valued at $5B - CoinDesk^[1]. The Series D round was led by Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with participation from Paradigm, CapitalG, Coinbase Ventures, and other investors Kalshi Starts Global Expansion With New $300M Raise^[4]. The capital will support Kalshi's expansion to users in over 140 countries, its first major international rollout Prediction Market Kalshi Valued at $5B - CoinDesk^[1].

The platform's trading volume is projected to reach $50 billion annually, up from $300 million in 2024, solidifying its position as the dominant player in the prediction market space. Kalshi now holds more than 60% of the global market share, surpassing rival Polymarket Prediction Market Kalshi Valued at $5B - CoinDesk^[1]. This growth has been driven by sports betting, particularly parlays, which have drawn regulatory scrutiny from U.S. states alleging the platform circumvents sports betting laws Prediction Market Kalshi Valued at $5B - CoinDesk^[1].

Kalshi's expansion includes immediate availability in 140 countries, though it restricts access in 38 jurisdictions, including Canada, France, the United Kingdom, and China Taiwan. The company cited a member agreement outlining these restrictions but did not specify new markets Kalshi Starts Global Expansion With New $300M Raise^[4]. The platform's CFTC regulatory approval in 2025 has enabled its U.S. operations, but it now faces legal challenges from states like Massachusetts, which accuses it of violating gambling laws Prediction Market Kalshi Valued at $5B - CoinDesk^[1].

The funding round follows a $185 million raise in June 2025, led by Paradigm Kalshi - 2025 Company Profile, Team, Funding^[3]. Investors highlighted Kalshi's regulatory compliance and scalable infrastructure as key strengths. a16z's Growth Fund partner Alex Immerman noted the platform's potential to become "the largest and most important financial market" Kalshi Starts Global Expansion With New $300M Raise^[4]. Meanwhile, Polymarket, Kalshi's primary competitor, recently secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), valuing it at $9 billion .

Kalshi's expansion strategy includes partnerships with platforms like Robinhood and Webull to enhance accessibility. The company also aims to diversify its event offerings, with a focus on sports and crypto-related markets Prediction Market Kalshi Valued at $5B - CoinDesk^[1]. Despite regulatory hurdles, the prediction market sector is forecast to grow at a 46.8% annual rate, driven by demand for real-time sentiment analysis and risk management tools Polymarket $8 Billion Valuation Steams Ahead of Kalshi, But Race …^[6].