Kaia/Tether Market Overview: 2025-10-22

• KAIA/USDT traded in a tight range for most of the session, breaking decisively lower before 22:00 ET
• A strong bearish reversal pattern emerged at 0.1098–0.1088 followed by a continuation of selling pressure
• Volatility expanded after 22:00 ET, with volume surging at key breakdown levels
• Price found a temporary floor at 0.1055–0.1056, consolidating in the final 4 hours
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, hinting at potential short-term recovery

Kaia/Tether (KAIAUSDT) opened at 0.1093 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 0.1099, before falling to a low of 0.1036 and closing at 0.1053 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 17.33 million KAIA, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.82 million over the 24-hour period.

The price action suggests a bearish tilt, particularly in the latter half of the session. A key 15-minute candle at 22:00 ET formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the 0.1081 level, confirming a shift in sentiment. From there, selling pressure intensified, with volume surging to over 1 million KAIA in the 22:45–00:00 ET window. The price then entered a consolidation phase around 0.1055–0.1056, suggesting a possible short-term bottom. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained in a downtrend, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the early part of the session, indicating increased volatility, but then narrowed again as the market consolidated. This contraction may hint at a potential breakout or reversal in the coming session. The RSI touched oversold levels around 0.1055, suggesting that further downward momentum could stall or reverse. However, this should be taken cautiously, as the MACD was still bearish, with the line below the signal line and negative histogram bars.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the key 0.1099–0.1036 swing suggest critical support at 0.1065 (38.2%) and 0.1055 (61.8%). If the price holds above 0.1055, a potential bounce toward 0.1075 could be expected. Conversely, a break below 0.1055 would target 0.1045 and possibly 0.1035. Volume spiked at key support levels but did not confirm strong buying interest, indicating cautious optimism at best.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration is a MACD Golden Cross approach, which typically looks for the MACD line to cross above the signal line as a buy signal. However, the dataset provided does not include MACD values, as the symbol KAIAUSDT is not available in the data source. To proceed with the backtest, a few options are available:

First, confirm that the correct symbol (e.g., KAIA/USDT) is being used across exchanges. Second, supply an alternative data source—historical OHLC data in CSV or JSON format for the period from 2022-01-01 to today would allow manual MACD calculation and signal generation. Third, switch to a comparable symbol like BTC/USDT or ETH/USDT, where MACD data is likely accessible. Once clarified, the backtest can proceed to evaluate the strategy’s effectiveness in capturing bullish trends on the given timeframe.