Kadena/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-10-04

• Kadena/Bitcoin (KDABTC) closed below its 24-hour high, with bearish momentum emerging near $3.04e-6.
• Volume spiked at $3.04e-6 before a decline to $2.97e-6, indicating short-term selling pressure.
• RSI shows oversold conditions below 30, while MACD remains negative, signaling bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands contract in the late hours, suggesting potential breakout or reversal.

Kadena/Bitcoin (KDABTC) opened at $3.07e-6 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $3.10e-6, touched a low of $2.93e-6, and closed at $2.93e-6 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 132,659.99, and total turnover was $399.68. The pair displayed a volatile 24-hour range, with key price action occurring between $3.04e-6 and $2.97e-6.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish bias with support forming around $2.94e-6, tested twice in the last 3 hours. A doji near $3.03e-6 suggests indecision. A bearish engulfing pattern appears around $3.07e-6 to $3.04e-6, signaling a potential continuation of the downward move. Resistance levels are concentrated at $3.04e-6 and $3.07e-6, with a recent breakdown below both.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both sit above the current price, suggesting a bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages all above the current price, reinforcing the downtrend. Price is trading below all three, which could continue to exert downward pressure unless a strong reversal emerges.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover, indicating continued bearish momentum. RSI has fallen to 28, suggesting the pair may be oversold, though it has not yet triggered a bounce. The combination of weak momentum and overbought conditions suggests caution in expecting a near-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained low for most of the session, with price consolidating within the Bollinger Bands. A late-night contraction between 02:00 and 04:00 ET suggests a potential breakout or reversal may be imminent. Price closed near the lower band at $2.93e-6, a sign of bearish exhaustion but not necessarily a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at $3.04e-6 but declined sharply as the price moved below $3.02e-6, signaling possible profit-taking or capitulation. Turnover also fell in line with the price drop, suggesting reduced conviction in the move lower. No significant divergences were observed, but the lack of volume behind the breakdown raises some uncertainty about the strength of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $3.10e-6 to $2.93e-6, the 38.2% retrace level is at $3.03e-6, and the 61.8% is at $3.05e-6. The price has already broken below the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend toward $2.90e-6 or lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when price breaks above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss at the recent swing low. Conversely, short entries are triggered on a break below the 20-period MA, with a stop above the recent high. Given today’s price action, the strategy would have triggered a short signal at $3.08e-6 in the early hours of October 3. The trade would have remained open as the price continued to fall, closing the position at $2.93e-6 with a stop loss at $3.10e-6. This aligns with the bearish bias seen in the candlestick and indicator analysis.