Kadena/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-10-03

• Price formed a bearish reversal pattern after reaching a 24-hour high of $3.17e-06.
• Volatility increased during a key intraday pullback to $3.06e-06, signaling potential support.
• MACD and RSI showed mixed momentum with RSI trending lower near neutral territory.
• Total volume spiked during the 19:30–20:30 ET time frame, coinciding with a sharp sell-off.

Kadena/Bitcoin (KDABTC) opened at $3.13e-06 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $3.17e-06 before closing at $3.08e-06 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. Total traded volume amounted to 32,699.27 units with a notional turnover of $101.17. The market experienced a sharp intraday decline, with key resistance at $3.17e-06 and support forming around $3.06e-06.

Over the last 24 hours, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly, reinforcing the downward bias. A 50-period SMA on the daily chart confirmed a broader downtrend, supported by a 200-period SMA. Price tested the upper Bollinger Band early in the session, but volatility expanded during the 21:00–22:00 ET range as the market retreated to the lower band. This suggests increased uncertainty and a potential accumulation phase.

The RSI has fallen into neutral territory near the 50 level, indicating balanced pressure between buyers and sellers. Momentum, as measured by the MACD, has flattened, with the histogram turning negative after a period of consolidation. This could signal a lack of conviction in the downward move, though a continuation of the sell-off may push RSI below 30, signaling oversold conditions. Notably, price found brief support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level during the intraday pullback.

The highest volume spike occurred during the 19:30–19:45 ET timeframe when price moved from $3.17e-06 to $3.16e-06. Despite the volume, price failed to recover and continued its downward trajectory. A divergence between volume and price suggests either profit-taking or lack of follow-through in buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described involves a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band breakout entry signals on the 15-minute chart. Given the recent divergence between RSI and price during the intraday pullback and the expansion of the Bollinger Bands, a short-biased strategy could have been triggered. The hypothesis is that entering a short position after a bearish divergence and a break of the lower Bollinger Band would have captured the recent decline in KDABTC. This approach aligns with the observed bearish momentum and volatility expansion, making it a viable candidate for further testing with historical data.