JUVUSDC Market Overview: 24-Hour Volatility and Bearish Momentum

• The Juventus Fan Token/USDC pair traded in a 0.982–1.022 range, with a bearish bias late morning before stabilizing near 0.991.
• Volatility dipped after 22:00 ET but surged again after 04:00 ET with a strong bullish push toward 0.997.
• RSI approached oversold territory twice, but failed to trigger a sustained reversal, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands remained narrow for most of the session, expanding sharply after 04:00 ET as volume increased.
• Total volume and turnover were mixed, with price action confirming strength above 0.994 but weak follow-through below 0.988.

Juventus Fan Token/USDC (JUVUSDC) opened at 1.002 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1.022 and a low of 0.974 before closing at 0.988 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 17,766.19, with a total turnover of $17,759.30. The pair exhibited significant intraday volatility, especially after 04:00 ET, when a bullish move pushed prices back toward mid-range levels.

Structure & Formations

The JUVUSDC pair formed several key candlestick patterns over the 24-hour period. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 04:30 ET, pushing the price from 0.988 to 0.997, followed by a bearish harami at 06:15 ET, where the price opened at 0.998 and closed at 0.990. The most notable support levels appeared at 0.988 and 0.982, with multiple 15-minute candles closing near these levels. Resistance at 0.994 and 0.999 also showed resistance, with price failing to break above 1.003 multiple times, indicating a bearish bias in the short term.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover just before 06:00 ET, with the 20-period line dipping below the 50-period line. This signaled weakening momentum and confirmed the bearish sentiment observed in the candlestick patterns. Over the daily chart, the 50-period moving average (50DMA) and 200-period moving average (200DMA) showed a more neutral alignment, with the price hovering just below the 50DMA.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line moved into negative territory after 06:00 ET, with the histogram showing a bearish divergence. The RSI dipped below 30 twice during the session — once at 18:45 ET and again at 05:45 ET — signaling oversold conditions. However, the price failed to mount a strong reversal from either level, suggesting that the bearish pressure may continue. The RSI closed near 50 at 12:00 ET, indicating a potential equilibrium in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remained relatively narrow for most of the session, indicating low volatility and a consolidation phase. A sharp expansion occurred at 04:30 ET, coinciding with the bullish engulfing pattern, as the price moved from near the lower band to above the midline. The bands remained expanded for about 4 hours before narrowing again, suggesting that the market may be testing key levels before entering another consolidation phase. The price ended the 24-hour period near the lower half of the bands, reinforcing the bearish tone.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was generally low until 04:30 ET, when a large 1413.66 volume candle pushed the price from 0.988 to 0.997. The subsequent volume remained moderate, with no clear divergence between price and volume. Turnover increased during the bullish breakout but did not sustain high levels, which may indicate a lack of conviction among traders. The final 15-minute candle before 12:00 ET showed a volume spike of 576.7, reinforcing the bearish close.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.982 (low at 20:45 ET) to 0.997 (high at 04:30 ET) revealed key levels: 38.2% at 0.987, 50% at 0.9895, and 61.8% at 0.9925. The price tested the 50% and 61.8% levels at several points but failed to break through, suggesting that the 0.9895 level may act as a key support in the near term. On a daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent swing from 1.022 to 0.974 lies at 0.998, and the 61.8% at 0.983 — both areas saw significant price clustering during the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined in the description involves entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern when the close exceeds the prior candle's high and volume spikes by 50% or more. Short positions are initiated on a bearish harami pattern when the close is below the prior candle's low and volume increases by 40%. Given the JUVUSDC chart, these patterns were observed at 04:30 ET and 06:15 ET, respectively. The 04:30 ET bullish engulfing pattern was accompanied by a volume increase of over 280% compared to the previous 15-minute candle, satisfying the entry criteria. A backtest would aim to confirm if this strategy yields a positive risk-adjusted return when applied to the JUVUSDC pair under similar conditions.