JUVUSDC Market Overview for 2025-10-09

• The JUVUSDC pair saw a 9.7% decline over 24 hours, with volatility peaking in the late evening.
• A bearish breakout occurred below 1.107, confirming short-term weakness.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while Bollinger Bands narrowed, signaling potential consolidation.
• Notional turnover surged during the 23:00–00:00 ET window, but price failed to follow through.
• Volume spiked during sharp declines but remained muted during rallies, suggesting bearish control.

The Juventus Fan Token/USDC pair (JUVUSDC) opened at 1.103 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.101 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 1.137 and a low of 1.079. Total volume reached 96,879.97, and notional turnover exceeded 96,879.97 USD, reflecting high liquidity and aggressive price swings.

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish shift with a breakdown below key support at 1.107, followed by a pullback to 1.08. A morning rally to 1.099 found resistance, forming a bearish harami pattern. Key support levels include 1.08, 1.10, and 1.107, with 1.115 acting as a strong resistance above the close. The price is currently below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a downtrend.

Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly during the midday consolidation phase, followed by a sharp expansion downward post 20:00 ET. Price remains near the lower band, suggesting continued bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory, but a divergence with price suggests a potential rebound could be near. MACD remains negative with bearish crossovers, but the histogram is flattening, hinting at decreasing selling pressure.

Fibonacci retracements from the 1.137 high to the 1.079 low show critical levels at 1.087 (23.6%), 1.103 (38.2%), and 1.117 (61.8%). The current price is near the 23.6% retracement level, which may act as a short-term floor. Volume during the breakdown was strong but has since declined, signaling exhaustion. A breakout above 1.107 could trigger a rebound to 1.103, while a retest of 1.085 may signal further weakness. Investors should watch for a reversal candle near 1.08 as a potential trigger for a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on a breakdown below the 1.107 support level with a stop-loss above the 1.115 resistance and a target near the 1.08 Fibonacci retracement. A reversal long trade is triggered when price stabilizes and forms a bullish engulfing pattern near the 1.08 level. The strategy incorporates RSI and MACD confirmation to filter false signals. Based on today’s action, the short-side trade was validated, while the long-side signal remains pending further confirmation.