JUVUSDC Market Overview: 2025-10-07 12:00 ET – 2025-10-08 12:00 ET

• Price fell from 1.25 to 1.113 over 24 hours, driven by consistent selling pressure in late ET hours.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions, with RSI dipping below 30 for extended periods.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 1.155, signaling potential continuation of the downtrend.
• Volume surged during the final 6 hours, but price failed to find clear support above 1.12.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the early morning, with price breaching lower Bollinger Bands.

Price and Volume Summary

The Juventus Fan Token/USDC (JUVUSDC) opened at 1.25 and closed at 1.113, reaching a high of 1.303 and a low of 1.110 over the last 24 hours. Total volume traded was 127,724.69 units, with notional turnover totaling approximately $141,629.86 (at an average price of ~$1.11). The pair saw declining price action, especially in the late ET hours, where volume and volatility spiked without a strong directional follow-through.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a clear bearish bias, with price forming a bearish engulfing pattern near 1.155 and a shooting star at 1.149. A key support level emerged around 1.110–1.115, which held twice but failed to trigger a strong reversal. Resistance levels are evident at 1.15 and 1.18, where prior attempts at bullish breaks fizzled out. A bearish flag pattern is forming between 1.21 and 1.115, suggesting further downward momentum is probable if the pattern completes.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a steep bearish crossover, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day averages are separating, with price trending below both—confirming a longer-term bearish bias. Volatility expanded significantly during the early morning hours, with price trading near the lower Bollinger Band for extended periods.

Momentum and Fibonacci Levels

The RSI dipped below 30 and remained in oversold territory for several hours, though it showed no signs of reversal. MACD showed a bearish divergence, with both the line and histogram trending lower. The most recent swing from 1.303 to 1.110 aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels, with 1.15 and 1.19 as potential targets for bounces. If the trend continues, the 61.8% level at ~1.088 becomes a critical area to watch over the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described in the input involves a trend-following long/short system using a combination of EMA crossovers and RSI thresholds to enter and exit positions. A 20/50 EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart, combined with an RSI below 30 and MACD histogram divergence, could have been used to short the pair at 1.16–1.18 with a stop just above 1.21. A close below 1.115 would have confirmed the bearish thesis, aligning with the observed Fibonacci and support levels. This strategy could be tested over similar price environments, especially in fan tokens with low liquidity and high retail participation.