JUPUSDT Market Overview: 24-Hour Price Action and Technical Implications

• JUPUSDT traded in a 0.4367–0.4639 range over 24 hours, closing near 0.44.
• A bearish breakdown below key support 0.4421 occurred, confirming a shift in sentiment.
• High volatility was observed in the early hours, with a large-volume reversal candle at 0.4421.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while MACD showed bearish divergence.
• Volume surged in the 14:15–16:00 ET window, confirming a strong bearish reversal.

24-Hour Price Summary

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.4463 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.4639 and a low of 0.4367 before closing at 0.44 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total 24-hour volume was 6,117,110.3, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $2.67 million (based on JUPUSDT price-weighted average). The price closed near the midpoint of the range, but bearish momentum has accelerated in the last 6 hours of the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels identified include 0.4421 and 0.4367, both of which have seen strong volume and price rejection. A large bearish reversal candle formed at 0.4421 on 2025-10-08 at 03:30 ET, opening at 0.4421 and closing at 0.4385 with high volume. A double-bottom structure is forming around 0.4367, which could serve as a potential reversal point. A bearish engulfing pattern was confirmed at 0.4421–0.4451, suggesting a short-term bearish continuation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward over the last 12 hours, with the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA in a death cross formation. On a daily scale, the 50- and 100-period SMAs have both crossed below the 200SMA, forming a bearish triple confirmation. Price remains below all three moving averages, reinforcing a bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned bearish below the signal line, with bearish divergence evident in the last 6 hours. The RSI has entered oversold territory (28) at the close, suggesting potential short-term bounce, though bearish momentum remains strong. Overbought conditions were seen at 0.448 on 2025-10-08 around 14:15 ET, followed by a sharp correction, indicating poor follow-through buying.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the early hours of 2025-10-08, with the upper band reaching 0.4639 and the lower band hitting 0.4367. The current close of 0.44 is near the middle of the bands, but the upper band remains distant, suggesting that a retest of the upper band is unlikely without a significant bullish catalyst. The contraction in the latter part of the 24-hour window may precede a breakout or breakdown in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply between 14:15 and 15:00 ET, with a single 15-minute candle at 14:15 ET seeing 4.38 million volume at a price of 0.4522. This is the largest volume candle in the dataset and coincided with a sharp price reversal. Notional turnover also peaked during this period. The divergence between volume and price suggests strong short-term bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent high (0.4639) and low (0.4367) on the daily chart, the 0.4472 level corresponds to the 23.6% retracement and the 0.4415 level is the 38.2% retracement. The 61.8% retracement is at 0.4392. On the 15-minute chart, the 0.4421 level is a critical 50% retracement zone and appears to be holding as a key support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy is based on a combination of RSI (14) and MACD (12,26,9) signals to identify short-term entries. A sell signal is triggered when RSI crosses above 70 and MACD turns bearish (MACD below signal line), with a stop-loss placed at the 50-period moving average. A buy signal occurs when RSI falls below 30 and MACD turns bullish, with a stop-loss at the 20-period moving average. Given today’s price action, the bearish divergence in RSI and MACD may present a high-probability short entry. However, the low RSI at the close suggests caution, and a retest of 0.4421 should be closely watched for confirmation of a continuation.