Jupiter/Tether Market Overview

• JUPUSDT declined by -16.86% over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.4465 after hitting a high of 0.4818.
• A bearish divergence in volume and price was observed during the early hours of the session.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions by the close, hinting at potential short-term consolidation or a rebound.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Band widening, suggesting increased uncertainty in the market.
• A potential support level emerged near 0.4462–0.4457, aligned with a recent Fibonacci retracement.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at 0.4732 on 2025-10-03 16:00 ET and closed at 0.4465 on 2025-10-04 16:00 ET. The pair traded as high as 0.4818 and as low as 0.4462 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was 29,482,825.9 and total turnover was approximately 13,376.68, calculated as the sum of volume × close for each 15-minute candle.

Structure & Formations

Price action on JUPUSDT exhibited a clear bearish bias over the 24-hour window, characterized by a descending triangle formation in the 15-minute chart. Key resistance levels emerged near 0.4700–0.4715, where the price repeatedly failed to break out, resulting in a series of bearish engulfing and shooting star patterns. A significant breakdown occurred after a long bearish candle at 0.4818 opened at that level and closed near 0.4738, suggesting short-term capitulation. The price then continued lower into the overnight session, with a support level forming in the 0.4462–0.4457 range.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a clear bearish crossover (death cross) in the early part of the session, aligning with the bearish price action. On the daily timeframe, the 50 and 200-period moving averages are converging from a bearish bias, but the 100-period MA remains above the 50-period MA, indicating potential short-term support. A crossover of the 50-period MA above the 100-period MA may signal a temporary pause in the downtrend, but the overall bias remains bearish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative early in the session and remained below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram contracted in the latter half of the session, suggesting a weakening in the short-term bearish thrust. The RSI fell into oversold territory (below 30) near the close, indicating possible near-term exhaustion of the downtrend. A rebound or consolidation phase could follow if RSI remains in this range and the MACD shows signs of divergence or contraction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility on JUPUSDT expanded significantly during the session, with Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow contraction to a broader range. The price spent a large portion of the session in the lower third of the bands, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours, indicating a bearish distribution. As of the final 15-minute candle, the price closed near the lower band, reinforcing the potential for a rebound or consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the initial breakdown at 0.4818, with a 15-minute candle printing a volume of 616,710.5 and a close of 0.4818, confirming the bearish move. However, volume then sharply declined during the subsequent legs of the move lower, particularly after the 04:00 ET time frame. This suggests weakening conviction in the bearish narrative. The overall turnover of 13,376.68 supports this, showing a divergence between volume and price action in the latter half of the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from 0.4818 to 0.4462, the 38.2% level is at ~0.4675 and the 61.8% level is at ~0.4548. JUPUSDT is currently trading near the 0.4462 level, which aligns with the 76.4% retracement of the move down from 0.4818. This level appears to be a potential floor in the short term, with a bounce or consolidation expected if RSI and MACD show signs of divergence.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum, the breakdown from key resistance, and the current oversold RSI reading, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a long reversal setup if the price finds support at or near 0.4462–0.4457. A long entry could be triggered upon a bullish close above the 0.4465 level with RSI above 35 and MACD showing a positive divergence. The take-profit target could be aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at ~0.4675, with a stop-loss placed below the 0.4457 support level. This strategy would aim to capture a short-term bounce or consolidation phase following the sharp decline.