Jupiter/Tether Market Overview (2025-11-14)

Summary
• JUPUSDT opened at $0.3289 and closed at $0.2949 after a 24-hour drop of ~10.3%.
• Volume surged to over 918,339.7 at 04:45 ET, with price dropping sharply to a 24-hour low of $0.2924.
• Momentum indicators show bearish divergence, and price is now below key support levels.

Jupiter/Tether (JUPUSDT) opened at $0.3289 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2949 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14. The 24-hour range was between $0.3294 and $0.2924, with total volume exceeding 5,586,000 and turnover reaching approximately $1,763,500.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish continuation pattern throughout the session, with a key breakdown below the 0.3102 support level into the 0.2924–0.2946 range. A long bearish candle at 04:45 ET (0.2924–0.2949) confirmed weakening sentiment.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the price closing below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a deepening bearish bias. On the daily chart, JUPUSDT is well below the 50, 100, and 200 SMA, reinforcing a potential continuation of the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned sharply negative in the final hours of the session, with the RSI dropping to levels below 30, suggesting oversold conditions. However, divergence in price and momentum suggests a potential false bottom, where a further decline may still occur before any meaningful bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Price broke below the lower band at 0.2924, signaling increased bearish pressure. The bands have widened, indicating rising volatility, particularly in the final 6 hours of the session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 04:45 ET with over 918,339.7 units traded, the highest of the 24-hour period. Notional turnover increased in tandem with price decline, suggesting strong selling pressure. No divergence was observed between volume and price action, indicating the sell-off was confirmed by high liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings have seen price hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.2946, followed by a breakdown into uncharted territory. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the previous uptrend aligns near $0.2950–0.2975, suggesting that a bounce from the 0.2946–0.2960 range could occur if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy outlines a potential RSI-based trading approach using a 14-period RSI to identify oversold levels (below 30). If implemented on JUPUSDT, this could have generated a signal near the closing 15-minute candle at 04:45 ET, where RSI dropped sharply. A buy signal at 0.2968 (close of that candle) with a 3-day hold would test if the price can retrace to 0.3000–0.3050. Given the current volatility and bearish divergence, such a signal may appear late in a downtrend and is more suitable for swing traders willing to manage a high-risk, high-volatility environment.