The Jump Gap Juggernaut: Why SAN, SBUX, and MDLZ Are Worth Watching This Week

Investors are always on the hunt for the next big move, and this week’s jump gaps in SAN (Santander), SBUX (Starbucks), and MDLZ (Mondelez) offer clues about where the market is heading. Let’s dive into the numbers to see who’s worth buying, who’s a sell, and where the gaps might close—or widen—next.

1. MDLZ: A Sweet Spot for Snack Investors?

Mondelez’s stock jumped 3.32% on April 30, 2025, after Q1 earnings beat expectations, despite flat revenue. The key here? Cocoa costs and share buybacks.
- Analysts see an average target of $70.23, with some as high as $81, implying a 19% upside from its current price of $67.84.
-
- The company spent $1.5 billion on buybacks at an average price of $57.91, signaling confidence in its undervaluation.

But wait: Sales volumes dropped 3.5% due to retailer destocking and pricing sensitivity. Cocoa inflation is also eating into margins—gross profit fell 12% in Q1.

Verdict: MDLZ is a “buy” if cocoa costs stabilize, but keep an eye on $62, where a collapse in free cash flow could trigger a sell-off.

2. SAN: A Bank on a Volatile Tightrope

Santander’s April 8 gap-up—+5.2% at open—turned into a -4.3% close, showcasing its notorious post-gap volatility. Yet, the fundamentals are strong:
- Q1 net profit hit €3.4 billion, up 19%, fueled by Spain and the U.S.
-
- A 2.4% dividend yield and $0.1152 semi-annual payout** attract income investors.

The catch: Mexico and Brazil dragged down earnings, and macro risks—like U.S. tariffs on Mexico and a weakening peso—are looming.

Verdict: SAN is a “hold” for dividends but avoid short-term trading. The $6.47 50-day MA is a key support level; below that, watch for a drop to $5.50.

3. SBUX: Can the Coffee Giant Climb Back?

Starbucks’ April 24 gap-down—-0.54% at open—reflects a brutal year: shares are down 13% in 2025 after a 1% same-store sales decline and operational missteps.
- Technicals are dire: The death cross (50-day MA below 200-day MA) signals prolonged weakness.
-
- Support at $77 is critical—below that, the next stop is $72, a 2024 low.

The upside: A $91 resistance (August 2024 gap level) could spark a rally if Q3 earnings surprise. But with tariffs and inflation biting, don’t bet on it yet.

Verdict: SBUX is a “sell” near $83. Wait for a dip to $75 before considering a “buy the dip” play.

Conclusion: The Gap Game Plan

This week’s jump gaps reveal three distinct stories:
1. MDLZ: A buy at $67.84 for those willing to bet on margin recovery and emerging markets.
2. SAN: A hold for dividends but skip short-term trades.
3. SBUX: A sell above $80; wait for $75 to test the “bottom.”

The data doesn’t lie: MDLZ’s analyst targets and SAN’s dividend yield offer the best risk/reward. SBUX needs a miracle—like a $91 breakout—to justify a buy.

Invest wisely—and stay ahead of the gaps!

Final Take:
- Buy MDLZ below $70; target $81.
- Hold SAN above $6.47; avoid below $5.50.
- Sell SBUX above $80; wait for $75.

The market’s volatility is here to stay, but these gaps are your roadmap.