Jumia's Q3 2025: Conflicting Signals on Fulfillment Costs, Customer Growth, and GMV Expectations

Date of Call: November 12, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: $45.6M, up 25% YOY (up 22% on a constant currency basis)
• Gross Margin: 12% of GMV, compared to 14% in Q3 2024 and 13% in Q2 2025

Guidance:

• Physical goods order growth expected 25%–27% in 2025.
• GMV projected to grow 15%–17% year-over-year in 2025.
• 2025 loss before income tax expected to be approximately negative $55M to $50M.
• 2026 target loss before income tax maintained at negative $25M to $30M.
• Confirmed goal: breakeven on PBT in Q4 2026 and full-year profitability in 2027.

Business Commentary:

* Customer Demand and Order Growth: - Jumia reported a 34% year-over-year increase in physical goods orders for Q3, with physical goods GMV growing by 26%, adjusting for perimeter effects. - The growth was driven by strong customer demand, improved product offerings, increased marketing efficiency, and expansion into secondary cities.

• Fulfillment Cost Improvements:
• Fulfillment cost per order decreased by 22% year-over-year, reaching $1.86, driven by structural efficiencies in the logistics network and better shipment consolidation.

• This improvement reflects operational streamlining and cost management efforts across Jumia's supply chain.

• Active Customer Base Expansion:

• Quarterly active customers increased by 22% year-over-year, marking the highest increase in the past three years.

• The growth was driven by healthy customer acquisition and retention strategies, solid market execution, and scaling of the core marketplace.

• Upcountry Expansion Success:

• Orders from upcountry regions represented 60% of total volumes in Q3, up from 54% last year, indicating strong growth in secondary cities and rural regions.

• The expansion is supported by leveraging logistics and commercial infrastructure, unlocking new opportunities and driving significant market growth.

• Profitability and Financial Discipline:

• Jumia's adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $14 million, reflecting 1% year-over-year decline in loss before income tax.
• This progress is due to disciplined execution, cost efficiency gains across the business, and streamlining organizational structure.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management repeatedly emphasized accelerating customer demand and order growth, e.g., "physical goods orders grew 34% year-over-year..."; highlighted unit-cost improvements such as fulfillment cost per order down 22% to $1.86 and adjusted EBITDA loss improving to $14M from $17M; reiterated commitment to breakeven in Q4'26 and full-year profitability in 2027.

Q&A:

• Question from Tracy Kivunyu (SBG Securities): My first question is on the guidance for PBT. At $55 million at the top end, it is suggesting a very significant drop in costs in the fourth quarter, considering what you've seen in the third quarter already. And I just wanted to get some feedback regarding how you're thinking of the attribution for that. Is it that we're going to see very strong revenue acceleration considering you're going into a high seasonality period? Or do you also see some additional benefits from cost management. I think from my view; I feel like the tech expenses and the G&A expenses did not fall off as much as initially expected. So, will we see a bit more deceleration in costs from that end? Or will we actually see both? My second question would be on fulfillment. How should we think about fulfillment? There was a material deceleration in fulfillment per order in 3Q is quite positive. Is that our new baseline? Or should we expect an uptick considering the sale that we're factoring into 4Q?
  Response: Q4 expected to see both significant seasonally driven revenue acceleration (Black Friday/Christmas) and further cost efficiencies—fulfillment at $1.86/order is the new baseline and should improve with scale; tech and G&A reductions will continue to contribute to PBT improvement.

• Question from Tracy Kivunyu (SBG Securities): And if I could ask one more question on working capital movements for the fourth quarter. How are you thinking about that? And how is that feeding into your liquidity expectations and impact on shareholder equity?
  Response: Working capital improved in Q3 and management expects to ramp inventory faster without materially changing the working-cap cycle—Black Friday purchases will largely be sold within the quarter, so no significant change to liquidity dynamics is expected.

• Question from Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets): When you look at the 30% order and GMV growth in October you called out, I guess if we kind of run rate that through the quarter, I think that may bring you up maybe a bit below the low end of the guidance, at least for GMV. And so, I guess just is there an implied acceleration in the latter part of the quarter in there? I certainly could be doing the math wrong, but just any color there would be great.
  Response: October >30% is an early indication of Q4 momentum but management remains conservative and will stick to the refined full-year GMV guidance of 15%–17%.

• Question from Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets): With the slight adjustment to the guidance, I guess just generally, what changed in your visibility to the end of the year on order growth and GMV?
  Response: The guidance was modestly refined based on mid-quarter trends to be more conservative; no material shift in market dynamics and countries are generally accelerating.

• Question from Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets): On supply, Q4 — are there any puts and takes on access to supply? Any transitory factors where you could have gotten more product and you're not now?
  Response: Supply outlook is positive—currency stability and increased commitment from Chinese suppliers are improving inventory availability; no transitory supply constraints expected.

• Question from Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets): On countries where competitors seem to be retreating, what is happening in the competitive environment?
  Response: International nonresident platforms are reducing marketing scale and facing structural challenges (customs, logistics, local support); Jumia's localized model and distribution advantage are enabling market-share gains.

• Question from Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets): If we remove the impact from Egypt corporate sales, do you expect any material change in mix between 1P and marketplace going forward?
  Response: Excluding Egypt corporate sales, no major mix shift expected—Jumia remains primarily a marketplace (3P) with tactical 1P where appropriate.

• Question from Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets): Explain Jumia Instant and its net profit impact when balancing incremental demand versus margin differences.
  Response: Jumia Instant is a 4-hour delivery pilot in Nairobi targeting convenience-seeking customers; it is charged to customers and currently margin-neutral.

• Question from Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets): Fulfillment cost per order down 25% constant currency—what are the drivers and what can continue to drive it down?
  Response: Drivers are consolidation of fulfillment centers, productivity improvements, basic automation and scale leveraging fixed costs; these operational efficiencies should continue to reduce cost per order.

• Question from Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets): When you adjusted the pretax loss range versus prior outlook, is that just due to slightly lowered order outlook or other embedded drivers?
  Response: The change is a phasing/refinement—mainly G&A cost phasing adjustments; there is nothing significant and it is not linked to new top-line guidance.

• Question from Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets): On longer-term targets (breakeven in Q4'26 and profitability in '27), what is the top-line algorithm (order volumes or other) implied from here?
  Response: No formal top-line guidance for 2026/2027 provided; management expects 2026 growth to be broadly consistent with the exit rate of 2025 and believes current B2C fundamentals and unit economics support the path to breakeven and profitability.

• Question from Yanfang Jiang (The Benchmark Company, LLC): Active customer growth was very solid this quarter—what drove the acceleration, demographic profile of new users, and sustainability of this pace?
  Response: Acceleration driven by better assortment, pricing, expanded geographic reach into many new cities, and refined marketing; growth is broad-based across countries and viewed as sustainable.

• Question from Yanfang Jiang (The Benchmark Company, LLC): On upcountry expansion into second-tier cities—any details or milestones tied to 2026 strategy?
  Response: Upcountry now represents ~60% of orders; expansion is ongoing with substantial white-space remaining (e.g., further expansion in Nigeria North, Kenya, Ghana, Egypt); management views the expansion as still early with significant upside.

• Question from Yanfang Jiang (The Benchmark Company, LLC): Advertising penetration is low and softer this quarter—how should we think about the advertising monetization opportunity mid/long-term and strategic approach?
  Response: Advertising is ~1% of GMV with a target nearer ~2% benchmark for similar markets; focus is retail/ performance ads for local and Chinese sellers and major brands, scaling via improved ad tools and marketplace scale to materially grow ad revenue.

Contradiction Point 1

Economies of Scale and Fulfillment Costs

It involves the expected reduction in fulfillment costs due to economies of scale, which is a critical factor in Jumia's financial performance and operational efficiency.

What factors are contributing to the expected significant cost drop in Q4, and how should we think about fulfillment costs? - Tracy Kivunyu (SBG Securities)

2025Q3: On the cost side, further growth in usage will bring economies of scale to fulfillment, with the new baseline for fulfillment costs per order being $1.86, down 20% from the same quarter last year. - Francis Dufay(CEO)

How sticky are fulfillment costs per order, and are further reductions expected? - Unidentified Analyst

2025Q2: We are obviously really focused on operational efficiency, and you can see it in the cost per order, which is down 29%, and it's down 25% when you adjust for the negative foreign exchange impact. - Francis Dufay(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Customer Growth and Sustainability

It involves the sustainability of active customer growth, which is a key driver for Jumia's revenue and market expansion.

Can you discuss active customer growth and its sustainability? - Yanfang Jiang (The Benchmark Company)

2025Q3: Active customer growth is driven by a combination of better assortment, new markets, and refined marketing. It is healthy and broad-based across markets, and we foresee no reason for it to slow down. - Francis Dufay(CEO)

What maintained the order ratio outside capital cities and the pickup stations' growth potential? - Unidentified Analyst

2025Q2: We are now, as we said, we're now expecting a slightly lower growth than what we were expecting at the beginning of the year because we are focusing too much on the sustainability of this growth. - Francis Dufay(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Fulfillment Cost Trends

It involves the trend and expectations regarding fulfillment costs, which are crucial for understanding operational efficiency and profitability.

What factors will drive the significant cost decline in Q4, and how should we view fulfillment costs? - Tracy Kivunyu (SBG Securities)

2025Q3: On the cost side, further growth in usage will bring economies of scale to fulfillment, with the new baseline for fulfillment costs per order being $1.86, down 20% from the same quarter last year. - Francis Dufay(CEO)

Given the year's setup, could you increase marketing efforts as the holidays approach? - Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets)

2025Q1: For fulfillment costs per order, we expect them to be in line with Q1 2024, around $2.29. - Francis Dufay(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Order Growth and GMV Growth Expectations

It involves differing expectations for order growth and GMV growth, which are critical metrics for assessing the company's performance and growth trajectory.

Was there an acceleration at the end of the quarter due to the 30% growth in orders and GMV in October? - Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets)

2025Q3: The 30% growth in October is an indication of early Q4 acceleration, but we are being conservative with the guidance for the full year, expecting GMV growth between 15 and 17% year-over-year. - Francis Dufay(CEO)

Could you provide details on the trends in Q1? - Bradley Erickson (RBC Capital Markets)

2024Q4: We're observing continued progress on order growth and usage, which gives confidence for our guidance of 15 to 20% year-over-year growth. - Francis Dufay(CEO)