JPMorgan Trims Bullish's 2026 Target, Recalibrates for Core Earnings

JPMorgan & Co. has maintained a "Neutral" rating on Bullish Inc. (BLSH) following its third-quarter results, but trimmed its 2026 price target to $45 from $46, reflecting a reassessment of the crypto exchange's earnings model. The adjustment, detailed in a Thursday equity research note, stems from the firm's decision to exclude high-margin stablecoin promotion income derived from Bullish's $1.2 billion IPO proceeds, which analysts said skewed core valuation metrics. The new $45 target implies roughly 23.3% upside from the stock's recent closing price of $36.50.

Bullish's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted diluted EPS of $0.10, aligning with Bloomberg consensus, and revenue of $77 million, surpassing the $74 million forecast. Adjusted EBITDA of $29 million also outperformed estimates, driven by $50 million in subscription services and other (SS&O) revenue-up from $12 million in the prior year. JPMorgan analysts described the results as "solid," though they noted seasonal weakness in event-driven trading activity.

The firm's revised estimates exclude approximately $6.2 million in Q3 SS&O revenue tied to stablecoin promotions on IPO proceeds, which carry a near-100% margin. This adjustment led to a downward revision of 2025 and 2026 earnings forecasts, with 2026 adjusted EPS reduced to $0.93 from $1.29. JPMorgan projected $12 million in stablecoin promotion revenue for Q4, which it will also exclude from core valuation models. Analysts emphasized that despite these cuts, fourth-quarter trends-marked by heightened volatility in bitcoin and ethereum-position Bullish for a "much more constructive" trading environment.

The move contrasts with Deutsche Bank's recent upgrade of Bullish to "Buy" from "Hold," albeit with a slightly reduced $51 price target. Deutsche Bank cited Bullish's U.S. expansion and role as an infrastructure provider for traditional finance firms entering crypto as key growth drivers. The firm highlighted the exchange's 72% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 and its potential to sustain adjusted EBITDA margins above 40% in 2026.

Bullish's stock has faced headwinds, trading near its 52-week low amid broader crypto market declines. The stock has fallen 46% over six months, despite a 72% revenue surge in Q3. JPMorgan's analysts acknowledged the volatility but pointed to strategic initiatives, including the October launch of U.S. options trading and ongoing institutional onboarding, as catalysts for future growth.

The firm's decision to exclude non-core income aligns with a broader industry trend of recalibrating crypto valuations amid regulatory uncertainty and market consolidation. While Bullish's core trading and fee-based revenue streams remain robust, JPMorgan's revised model underscores the challenge of sustaining profitability in a sector marked by rapid technological and regulatory shifts.