JPMorgan Slashes Stablecoin Market Forecast to $50B by 2028

JPMorgan Chase has significantly lowered its growth forecast for stablecoins, predicting that the market size will only reach 50 billion dollars by 2028. The bank stated that its previous prediction of a 100 billion dollar market was overly optimistic, as there are currently few signs that dollar-pegged cryptocurrency tokens have been widely adopted by the mainstream.

Stablecoins, which were initially used primarily for cryptocurrency trading, have begun to attract the interest of fintech companies and banks seeking to accelerate payment and settlement processes. This development has also caught the attention of U.S. lawmakers. Last month, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, which analysts believe could bring the long-awaited regulatory clarity to the industry.

Prior to the passage of the GENIUS Act, Standard Chartered Bank had predicted that the stablecoin market could reach 200 billion dollars by 2028. Bernstein, in a report released on June 30, estimated that the supply of stablecoins could increase to approximately 400 billion dollars over the next decade.

However, JPMorgan Chase noted that the application of stablecoins in the payment sector remains limited, accounting for only about 6% of the total demand, or approximately 15 billion dollars. The total market size of stablecoins is estimated to be around 250 billion dollars, with their primary use still concentrated in cryptocurrency trading, decentralized finance (DeFi), and collateral purposes.

JPMorgan Chase predicts that the circulation of stablecoins could double to 50 billion dollars in the coming years, which is lower than its previous forecast of 100 billion dollars. "The idea that stablecoins will replace traditional currencies as a means of daily payment is still far from becoming a reality," the bank stated.

The promotion of stablecoins outside the cryptocurrency market faces multiple obstacles, including limited use cases and fragmented regulatory frameworks. On an international level, most countries are focused on developing their own digital currencies or strengthening existing payment systems, which limits the global adoption of stablecoins.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) recently warned that stablecoins could undermine monetary sovereignty, lack transparency, and exacerbate the risk of capital outflows from emerging markets.