JPMorgan sees FY net interest income at about $104.5B vs prior $103B; still expects FY NII ex-CIB markets around $95B

JPMorgan sees FY net interest income at about $104.5B vs prior $103B; still expects FY NII ex-CIB markets around $95B

JPMorgan Updates Full-Year Net Interest Income Forecast for 2026

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has revised its full-year (FY) 2026 net interest income (NII) forecast to approximately $104.5 billion, up from its prior projection of $103 billion, according to a recent update. The bank also reaffirmed its expectation for FY 2026 NII excluding the Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB) markets segment to remain near $95 billion [JPMorgan Chase & Co. FY 2026 financial projections].

The modest upward adjustment reflects evolving assumptions about interest rate dynamics and balance sheet performance. Net interest income, a key revenue driver for banks, is influenced by prevailing interest rates, loan growth, and deposit costs. JPMorgan's updated guidance suggests confidence in maintaining its interest income momentum amid a shifting macroeconomic environment.

The bank's projection excludes volatility from the CIB markets segment, which encompasses trading activities sensitive to market conditions. By isolating this segment, JPMorgan emphasizes stability in its core banking operations, including consumer and commercial lending. This approach aligns with broader industry trends as institutions navigate post-pandemic economic normalization and Federal Reserve policy adjustments.

Analysts note that JPMorgan's revised forecast underscores its disciplined balance sheet management. The bank has prioritized fee income diversification and cost control, which may amplify the resilience of its NII. However, challenges such as inflationary pressures and potential rate cuts in 2026 could influence year-end results.

For investors, the update provides clarity on JPMorgan's revenue trajectory, though execution risks remain tied to macroeconomic shifts. The bank's ability to meet or exceed its NII targets will depend on its success in managing interest rate sensitivity and maintaining loan growth.

As of February 2026, JPMorgan's guidance aligns with consensus expectations for cautious optimism in the banking sector, balancing growth aspirations with risk mitigation strategies.