JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon: Soft Landing Chances Slim, Recession Likely

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said on Wednesday that he still believes the chances of a soft landing for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, and thus in his view, the most likely scenario remains a recession.

In an interview on Wednesday, when asked if he had changed his view since February that the market was too optimistic about the risk of recession, Dimon said the risk of recession is about the same as he predicted earlier.

There's a lot of uncertainty out there, Dimon said, I've always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.

Dimon is the leader of the largest bank in the United States by assets and is one of the most respected voices on Wall Street. He has been warning of an economic hurricane since 2022. However, the U.S. economy has performed better than Dimon's expectations so far. Dimon said on Wednesday that although the default rate of credit card borrowers is rising, the United States is not currently in a recession.

Dimon added that due to future spending in the green economy and military, he is skeptical that the Federal Reserve can reduce the inflation rate to the 2% target.

There's always a large range of outcomes, Dimon said, I'm fully optimistic that if we have a mild recession, even a harder one, we would be okay. Of course, I'm very sympathetic to people who lose their jobs. You don't want a hard landing.

On the same day when Dimon made these comments, a report by JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman to clients estimated that the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into a recession by the end of this year is 35%, higher than the 25% estimated at the beginning of last month. The team maintained the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into a recession in the second half of 2025 at 45%.

Worries about a recession have led to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks in recent days, with the S&P 500 falling by 3% on Monday, the largest drop in nearly two years.

However, some other economists are more optimistic than Dimon, believing that a soft landing is more likely than a recession.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's, recently said, I think far and away the most likely scenario is a soft landing: The economy avoids an economic downturn.

Jay Bryson, Chief Economist at Wells Fargo, also said that a soft landing is still his baseline forecast.