JPMorgan's Q4 2025: Contradictions Emerge on Deposit Growth Timing, Credit Card APR Caps, Capital Allocation, and Apple Card Integration

Date of Call: Jan 13, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $46.8B, up 7% year-on-year
• EPS: $4.63 per diluted share
• Gross Margin: Not applicable for a bank; not provided.
• Operating Margin: Not explicitly provided as a percentage; not applicable for a bank.

Guidance:

• NII ex Markets for 2026 expected to be about $95B, driven by card loan growth and deposit growth, offset by lower rates.
• Total NII for 2026 expected to be about $103B.
• Adjusted expense for 2026 expected to be about $105B.
• Card net charge-off rate for 2026 expected to be approximately 3.4%.
• Outlook for strong client engagement and deal activity in 2026 in Investment Banking.

Business Commentary:

Financial Performance and Revenue Diversification:

• JPMorgan Chase reported net income of $13 billion and EPS of $4.63 for Q4 2025, with an ROTCE of 18%.
• Revenue reached $46.8 billion, up 7% year-on-year, driven by higher Markets revenue, asset management fees, and auto lease income.
• The increase was primarily due to higher firm-wide deposit balances and revolving balances in card, despite lower interest rates.

Consumer and Small Business Resilience:

• CCB reported net income of $3.6 billion and revenue of $19.4 billion, up 6% year-on-year.
• Consumers and small businesses showed resilience, with debit and credit sales volume up 7% year-on-year.
• This resilience was supported by strong growth in checking accounts and card accounts, contributing to record households in wealth management.

Investment Banking and Market Outlook:

• CIB reported net income of $7.3 billion with revenue of $19.4 billion, up 10% year-on-year.
• Markets fixed income was up 7% year-on-year, with strong performance in securitized products and emerging markets.
• The outlook for 2026 is positive, expecting strong client engagement and deal activity supported by constructive market dynamics.

Asset & Wealth Management Growth:

• AWM reported net income of $1.8 billion with revenue of $6.5 billion, up 13% year-on-year.
• Long-term net inflows were $52 billion for the quarter and $209 billion for the full year.
• Growth was driven by higher asset management fees on increased average market levels and strong performance fees.

Nonbank Financial Institution Lending and Risk:

• NBFI lending internally showed significant growth over 7 years, driven by market dynamics and regulatory pressures.
• The growth is attributed to arbitrage opportunities and regulatory capital factors, such as leveraged lending guidelines.
• Risk is managed through credit enhancement, and loss history since 2018 has been minimal, with only one charge-off related to fraud.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management expressed optimism about revenue growth, franchise opportunities, and specific businesses: 'We continue to expect strong client engagement and deal activity in 2026...we expect 2026 adjusted expense to be about $105 billion. Broadly, the expense growth continues to align with where we see the greatest opportunities across our businesses.'

Q&A:

• Question from Glenn Schorr (Evercore): Concerns about stablecoin loophole and potential risk to bank deposits if not closed.
  Response: Management emphasized the need to avoid creating an unregulated parallel banking system and acknowledged complexity around specific risks to deposits, but stated they are engaged in the technology and see consumer benefits.

• Question from Kenneth Usdin (Autonomous): Asked about drivers of fee revenue growth for 2026 across businesses.
  Response: Management is optimistic on Investment Banking and Wealth/Asset Management fees but cautious on market appreciation drivers given 2025's strength, noting a balanced fee outlook.

• Question from John McDonald (Truist Securities): Asked about the attraction of the Apple Card acquisition and thoughts on potential credit card APR caps.
  Response: Deal described as economically compelling and a win-win-win; on APR caps, warned that price controls in a competitive market would likely reduce credit access, especially for subprime borrowers, and harm the business.

• Question from Betsy Graseck (Morgan Stanley): Follow-up on impact of potential credit card APR caps on co-brand cards and reasons for 2-year Apple Card integration.
  Response: Impact would be more dramatic on subprime co-brands; Apple Card integration takes 2 years due to rebuilding Apple's proprietary technology stack into JPM's systems.

• Question from L. Erika Penala (UBS): Asked about macro backdrop for banking in 2026 and risks like executive overreach or geopolitical issues.
  Response: Near-term macro is positive with consumer strength and stimulus, but long-term risks include geopolitical tensions and large deficits; management focuses on navigating the environment and serving clients.

• Question from Gerard Cassidy (RBC Capital Markets): Asked about drivers of NBFI portfolio growth over 7 years and strategy to grow Markets NII.
  Response: Growth driven by regulatory arbitrage and capital constraints; Markets NII fluctuates with rates and balance sheet growth, but the business is grown for revenue and capital market share, not NII specifically.

• Question from Michael Mayo (Wells Fargo Securities): Asked for details on the $9B expense increase, tech/AI spending, and confidence in returns.
  Response: Management declined to provide competitive details but cited investments in technology, AI, and physical branches; emphasized long-term growth opportunities and not meeting arbitrary expense targets.

• Question from Ebrahim Poonawala (Bank of America): Asked about communication on potential credit card rate caps and views on optimal capital levels.
  Response: No communication details provided due to rapid developments; on capital, stressed that rules are not final and capital requirements should be based on accurate methodologies, not arbitrary targets, with excess capital currently ample.

• Question from James Mitchell (Seaport Global Securities): Asked about signs of broadening loan demand beyond cards and concerns on corporate credit.
  Response: For 2026, card remains the primary driver for CCB; wholesale C&I loan growth is modestly optimistic. Recent wholesale charge-offs were largely provisioned, and no concerning trends are seen in corporate credit.

• Question from Christopher McGratty (KBW): Asked about consumer deposit competition and sustainability of AWM growth.
  Response: Deposit competition remains very competitive; AWM franchise is performing well with strong flows and margins, supported by ongoing investment and product innovation.

Contradiction Point 1

Outlook for Deposit Growth and Inflection Timing

Contradiction on when deposit balances per account will start growing.

Despite growth in checking accounts and client investment assets, what is limiting deposit growth? - Glenn Schorr (Evercore)

20260113-2025 Q4: The expected return to growth in deposit balances per account... is now anticipated in the second half of 2026. - Jeremy Barnum(CFO)

What assumptions underlie the 2026 NII outlook for retail deposit growth, given the prior 3% Q4 and 6% next year projections and this quarter's flat deposits? - John McDonald (Truist Securities, Inc.)

2025Q3: The upward inflection point for deposit growth has been pushed out slightly, but the overall long-term trajectory remains confident. Key drivers... are still in place. - Jeremy Barnum(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Impact of Potential Credit Card APR Caps

Contradiction on the competitive landscape and potential impact of APR caps.

How might regulators capping credit card APRs affect JPMorgan? - John McDonald (Truist Securities)

20260113-2025 Q4: Imposing price controls in a highly competitive market would likely lead to reduced credit availability... This would be detrimental to consumers, the economy, and JPMorgan's business. - Jeremy Barnum(CFO)

Which areas of the Investment Banking pipeline show the most strength, and will rate cuts boost financial sponsor activity? - James Mitchell (Seaport Research Partners)

2025Q3: The environment is robust and upbeat... The rate environment is supportive, but this can change. - Jeremy Barnum(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Capital Allocation and Inorganic Growth Strategy

Contradiction on the openness to and rationale for inorganic growth acquisitions.

What will drive fee revenue growth across all businesses in 2026? - Kenneth Usdin (Autonomous)

20260113-2025 Q4: The projected expense growth for 2026 reflects both short-term optimism about fees and long-term investments in the franchise. - Jeremy Barnum(CFO)

Do you agree with the current optimism around financial deregulation and any specific factors supporting it? What capital uses are prioritized, what macro regulatory developments are required, and what is the expected timeline? - Christopher Edward McGratty (Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc.)

2025Q2: Everything is on the table, including inorganic growth opportunities. Acquisitions must meet high financial, strategic, and cultural bars. The regulatory environment does not currently shape this thinking. - Jeremy Barnum(CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Apple Card Integration Timeline

Contradiction on the stated duration required to integrate the Apple Card technology.

What are the key attractions of the Apple Card acquisition, including its financial aspects and co-brand partnership? - John McDonald (Truist Securities)

20260113-2025 Q4: The integration with Apple's innovative payment technology will take two years and enhance JPMorgan's modernization and user-friendliness in the card business. - Jeremy Barnum(CFO)

What is the timeline and challenges for integrating the Apple Card? - John McDonald (Truist Securities)

2025Q1: We expect the integration to take about one year, during which we will work closely with Apple to align our systems and processes. - Jeremy Barnum(CFO)