JPMorgan Predicts US Treasury Yields to Rise in 2026 Amid Waning Rate-Cut Expectations

JPMorgan expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rise to 4.35% by the end of 2026, after dropping about 50 basis points in 2025. The bank is among the more bearish forecasters, as it expects only two rate cuts next year, whereas traders are pricing in nearly four quarter-point cuts. JPMorgan's fair-value model suggests the 10-year yield is at least 15 basis points too low. Investor positioning could amplify losses, and Treasury returns next year are likely to be closer to their fixed interest rates.