JPMorgan Predicts Stablecoin Market to Reach $500 Billion by 2028 Amid Skepticism

JPMorgan has expressed skepticism about the optimistic projections surrounding stablecoins, predicting that the market will only grow to $500 billion by 2028. The bank cautions that trillion-dollar forecasts are overly optimistic, highlighting weak mainstream adoption and limited use beyond crypto trading as significant barriers to growth.

According to JPMorgan, stablecoins remain largely confined to their original role as tools for trading and collateral within crypto markets. Despite increased attention from lawmakers and financial institutions, the bank estimates that only 6% of stablecoin demand, approximately $15 billion, is tied to real-world payments. This suggests that the idea of stablecoins replacing traditional money for everyday use is still far from reality.

The stablecoin market has seen growth, expanding by 23% this year to reach $254 billion in total value. However, JPMorgan warns that this expansion does not equate to mass-market utility. Optimism surged last month with the passage of the GENIUS Act, the most comprehensive crypto legislation to date, which aims to provide regulatory clarity around stablecoin issuance. Standard Chartered predicted the stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by 2028, while Bernstein set its long-term forecast closer to $4 trillion. JPMorgan, however, pushes back on these views, noting that adoption outside of crypto trading remains minimal and fragmented.

While countries like China are advancing state-backed digital currencies, most have focused on national initiatives rather than embracing privately issued stablecoins. In June, China’s central bank pledged to expand the cross-border use of the digital yuan. In the private sector, signals remain mixed. Ant Group, which operates Alipay through its international arm, said it plans to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong. However, JPMorgan dismissed comparisons to China’s e-CNY or the dominance of platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay, saying they do not offer a roadmap for global stablecoin success.

US-based companies appear equally cautious. PayPal CEO Alex Chriss recently acknowledged that stablecoins are not yet ready for mass adoption in the US, citing a lack of strong consumer incentives. He noted that PayPal has begun offering rewards to encourage usage but added, “There isn’t a real incentive to drive adoption.” For now, JPMorgan’s forecast suggests the stablecoin story may grow slower than many had hoped, as regulatory hurdles, infrastructure gaps, and limited demand continue to weigh on the sector’s broader ambitions.