JPMorgan Predicts 50 Billion Dollar Retail Surge to Boost US Stocks by 10%

JPMorgan Chase has recently indicated that a significant influx of cash is poised to enter the U.S. stock market. The bank predicts that investors are preparing to inject 50 billion dollars into the stock market over the remainder of 2025, with a substantial portion of this capital expected to come from retail traders. Analysts in a report released on Wednesday stated, "Led by retail investors, we anticipate nearly 50 billion dollars in stock purchase flows for the rest of the year, which is sufficient to drive the market up by an additional 5% to 10% by the end of the year."

JPMorgan estimates that retail traders have already net purchased 27 billion dollars worth of stocks so far this year, with particularly aggressive buying in the first four months. The bank projects that, based on its December forecast of 63 billion dollars in total retail stock purchases for the year, there will be an additional 36 billion dollars in retail buying in the second half of the year.

The report also notes that while there are concerns about foreign buyers reducing their exposure to the U.S. market due to tariff volatility and the widening U.S. budget deficit, foreign investors could add an additional 5 billion to 10 billion dollars in net investments. "We believe that this 'resistance' from foreign investors to the U.S. stock market is unsustainable, as investors cannot avoid the largest and most important growth sector in the global stock market," the analysts added, pointing to the rebound in the S&P 500 index and the strong performance of the "tech seven giants" stocks.

Strategists further noted that foreign investors might want to see the dollar stabilize before increasing their interest in U.S. stocks. However, the bank suggests that this stabilization may already be underway, pointing to the dollar index stabilizing around 98 in recent weeks.

Retail investors have shown unprecedented buying enthusiasm this year. Retail investors have shown the highest level of net buying in at least a decade, even surpassing the stock market boom during the pandemic. In the first half of the year, retail investors net bought 155.3 billion dollars worth of stocks and ETFs, the highest level in at least a decade.

Technology stocks have garnered the most attention. In the first half of the year, NVIDIA was the most favored stock among retail traders, with the chip manufacturer seeing 19.3 billion dollars in inflows. This was followed by Tesla, with 11.9 billion dollars in inflows, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, with 6.3 billion dollars in inflows.