JPMorgan’s Options Imbalance and $305 Call Pressure: A Short-Term Bear Play Amid Crypto Controversy

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM) trades at $302.7, up 1.58% from $298.0, but RSI at 37.17 signals oversold conditions.
• Put/Call Open Interest ratio is 1.04, with heavy put OI at $290 and call OI at $305, hinting at bearish positioning.
• News of account closures for crypto advocates and a Zacks downgrade amplify near-term risks, while Bitcoin miner undervaluation adds long-term complexity.
• Bollinger Bands show JPM near the lower band ($294.13), with 30D support at $298.32 and 200D support at $289.57.

The stock is caught in a tug-of-war: Options data leans bearish, technicals hint at a rebound, and news flow amplifies reputational risks. But here’s what traders should watch.The Options Imbalance: A Bearish Setup with Nuance

Let’s start with the options chain. This Friday’s top OTM puts are clustered at $290 (OI: 4,240), $285 (OI: 1,994), and $295 (OI: 1,176). That’s a lot of bearish bets. Meanwhile, the top OTM calls are at $305 (OI: 3,045), $310 (OI: 2,216), and $312.5 (OI: 1,790). The put/call OI ratio of 1.04 isn’t extreme, but it’s enough to suggest a cautious market.

Here’s the twist: The RSI at 37.17 is screaming “oversold,” and the stock is near its 200D MA ($278.04). That creates a paradox—options traders are betting on a drop, but technicals hint at a short-term bounce. Where’s the truth?

The answer lies in the Bollinger Bands. JPM is trading near the lower band ($294.13), and the 30D support at $298.32 is just above current levels. If the stock holds here, the $305 call OI could act as a magnet. But if it breaks below $298.32, the $290 puts might dominate.

Block trading? None to report. So no whale moves to complicate things. For now, it’s a battle between short-term bears and a potential rebound.

News Flow: Crypto Controversy and Earnings Downgrades

JPMorgan’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. Closing Strike’s CEO’s accounts has sparked a crypto backlash, with calls for boycotts and political scrutiny. That’s reputational damage, which can weigh on the stock. Add in Zacks’ Q4 2025 earnings downgrade, and the near-term outlook gets cloudier.

But there’s a silver lining. JPMorgan’s report that Bitcoin miners are undervalued by 28% could attract long-term buyers. However, that’s a longer-term play—right now, the market is focused on the crypto “debanking” drama and earnings risks.

Investor sentiment is split. Retail traders might be spooked by the crypto headlines, while institutional investors could see the Zacks downgrade as a buying opportunity. The key is whether JPM’s management addresses these issues in their next guidance. Until then, the stock is vulnerable to short-term swings.

Trading Opportunities: Short-Term Bear Plays and Strategic Calls

Let’s get actionable. For options traders, the $305 Call (2025-11-28) is a key level. With 3,045 OI, it’s the most watched strike this week. If JPM breaks above $305, the $310 Call (2025-11-28) could see a rush. But if the stock stalls, selling the $305 Call (2025-11-28) as a short could work—especially if RSI retests oversold levels.

For next Friday (2025-12-05), the $310 Call (2025-12-05) is intriguing. With 714 OI, it’s a smaller but strategic strike. A bullish breakout above $307.64 (middle Bollinger Band) could push toward $310. But don’t ignore the puts: The $290 Put (2025-12-05) has 586 OI and could act as a safety net if the stock drops below $298.32.

Stock traders: Consider a short entry near $298.32 if support breaks. Target $294.13 (lower Bollinger Band) as a first stop. Alternatively, if JPM bounces off $294.13, a long entry near $298.32 could work, with a tight stop below $295.56 (intraday low).

Volatility on the Horizon

JPMorgan is at a crossroads. The options market is pricing in a bearish bias, but technicals suggest a potential rebound. The news flow complicates things—crypto backlash and earnings downgrades are negatives, but Bitcoin miner optimism adds a wildcard.

Traders should watch three things:

• Does JPM hold above $298.32?
• Will the $305 Call (2025-11-28) see a breakout?
• How does management address the crypto controversy in their next earnings call?

For now, the stock is in a tight range, with options data and news pointing to a higher probability of downside. But don’t ignore the RSI—it could spark a short-term rally. Position accordingly, and keep stops tight. The next few days will tell if this is a temporary dip or the start of something bigger.