JPMorgan Forecasts 11% NII Increase for 2025 Amid Market Volatility

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum, has expressed optimism regarding the bank's net interest income (NII) outlook for the second quarter of 2025. According to an investor report released on Monday, the largest bank in the United States anticipates that its full-year NII for 2025 will be approximately $94.5 billion, which aligns with the previous month's projections. However, Barnum noted that the company will reassess its formal guidance before releasing its second-quarter financial report in July.

Barnum stated, "We believe that the full-year performance for 2025 might be slightly better, potentially increasing by $10 billion. However, the yield curve has been highly volatile recently, and we hope to see market stabilization before refining our forecasts." The bank, along with its peers, is cautious about the potential ripple effects of tariffs on dozens of countries, which have already caused market volatility. The impact of these tariffs on its commercial and industrial investment portfolio will depend on the specific dynamics of the industry and the company, as well as the extent to which costs can be passed on to consumers.

Last week, CEO Jamie Dimon warned that an economic recession remains a possibility as the effects of tariffs continue to impact the global economy. He predicted that market volatility will persist, and JPMorgan's trading volume will remain high as a result. The bank's stock traders achieved record income in the first quarter due to the chaotic market conditions, even before the tariff policies and subsequent suspensions announced on April 2. Analysts expect that the bank's total trading revenue for the second quarter will continue to rise year-over-year.

Barnum also mentioned on Monday that while JPMorgan is focused on organic growth, potential acquisitions are always under consideration. He stated that the bank is also controlling the growth of its workforce, instead focusing on its existing employees. The bank's report stated, "We have directed management to leverage the existing business layout to efficiently support new business growth."