JPMorgan's Dimon Warns 50% Recession Chance Amid Global Uncertainty

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has expressed his concerns about the U.S. economy, stating that the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out. In a recent interview, Dimon highlighted the mounting uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which could exacerbate inflation and slow down economic growth.

Dimon deferred to the bank's economists, who have estimated a 50% chance of a recession. He acknowledged that while the recent developments in President Donald Trump’s trade war are moving in the right direction, there are still many unanswered questions. Dimon expressed gratitude for the US-UK deal, noting that it is an agreement in principle, but there remains significant uncertainty, particularly regarding China.

According to Dimon, the economic uncertainty is compounded by ongoing wars and conflicts around the world, as well as unresolved issues within the United States. These include a growing budget deficit and a tax bill currently being debated in Congress. He emphasized that markets are quite unpredictable and that factors such as the war in Ukraine, terror in the Middle East, Iran, huge deficits, the tax bill, tariffs, and the reaction of countries to tariffs all contribute to the overall uncertainty.

Dimon also noted that while recent developments in trade policies are positive, the overall economic outlook remains uncertain. He stated that if a recession were to occur, it is unclear how severe or prolonged it would be. Dimon's warnings underscore the ongoing uncertainty in the global economy and the potential impact of trade policies on economic growth. His remarks serve as a reminder that while recent developments may have eased some tensions, the risk of a recession remains a concern for many economists and investors.