JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Options Signal Deep Bearish Sentiment: Watch $300 Puts as Downside Risk Looms

• JPM trades at $310.18, up 0.75% but stuck near Bollinger Bands’ lower bound.
• Put/call ratio hits 1.28, with 11,119 OI at the $300 put (Friday expiry) as top single strike.
• Q4 earnings slump and regulatory risks clash with $2B Detroit investments and AI bets.

Here’s the takeaway: JPM shows clear downside risk. Options data and technicals align on a bearish near-term bias, but long-term range-bound structure offers cautious entry points for contrarians. Let’s break it down.

Bearish Put Dominance and Key Strike Levels

The options market isn’t whispering—it’s shouting. For Friday’s expiry, the $300 put (JPM20260116P300) leads with 11,119 open contracts, nearly double the next put. That’s not just bearish—it’s a price target. Think of it like a crowd of traders betting JPM will drop below $300 by Friday. Meanwhile, call options at $330 and $340 (JPM20260116C330, JPM20260116C340) have 9,302 and 7,140 OI respectively, suggesting a smaller but vocal group of bulls.

The put/call ratio of 1.28 (put OI > call OI) confirms this imbalance. But here’s the twist: no major block trades today. No whales moving mountains. This is retail and institutional caution, not panic. Still, the $300 put is a red flag. If JPM cracks that level, the 200D support at $290.85 looms—a 12% drop from current prices.

News: Earnings Woes vs. Strategic Bets

JPM’s Q4 earnings hit a wall. A $2.2B Apple Card reserve charge and regulatory risks (like the proposed 10% credit card cap) dragged profits down 7%. Analysts at DBS and Morgan Stanley stuck with Holds, while Evercore’s Buy rating feels like a lone voice in a storm.

But there’s light. The $1.5T Security Initiative and Detroit’s $2B milestone show JPM isn’t backing down. Yet insider selling (like Robin Leopold’s $301K exit) and weak investment banking fees tell a different story. The market’s weighing these contradictions—and leaning bearish.

Actionable Trades: Puts, Spreads, and Precision Entries

For options traders:

• Sell the $300 puts (JPM20260116P300) if JPM holds above $307.75 (intraday low). Premium decay works in your favor if the stock stays above $300.
• Bear call spread: Buy JPM20260123C315 (next Friday) and sell JPM20260123C330. Caps risk while profiting from a drop to $315.

For stock players:

• Short near $312 (current price) with a stop above $315. Target $300 first, then $290.
• Bullish? Buy JPM20260116C310 if it breaks $315.51 (30D resistance). Target $320, but watch the 30D MA at $319.75.

Volatility on the Horizon

JPM isn’t just a stock—it’s a barometer for banking sector resilience. The $300 put is a warning sign, but the 200D MA at $289.85 could become a floor. Regulatory risks are wildcards; a credit card cap could force a sharper drop. Conversely, AI and security bets might spark a rebound.

Bottom line: Defensive positioning wins here. Use options to hedge or short with tight stops. If JPM holds above $307.99 (lower Bollinger Band), the range-bound long-term trend could let you buy back in cheaper. But for now, the puts are louder—and the market’s ears are tuned to bears.