JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Options Signal $310 Floor as Bears Battle $300 Put Pressure – Here’s How to Play It

• JPM drops 3.8% to $312.14 amid Apple Card costs and regulatory headwinds.
• Options market shows 1.36 put/call ratio, with heavy bearish positioning at $300 and $310 strikes.
• Block trades hint at institutional hedging below $310, while bulls eye $330 as a short-term target.

Here’s the deal: JPMorgan’s stock is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term bearish momentum and long-term bullish fundamentals. The options market is screaming for caution below $310, but there’s a path for a rebound—if the stock holds key support. Let’s break it down.

Bearish Pressure at $300, But Bulls Are Guarding $310

The options chain tells a clear story. This Friday’s top put open interest is concentrated at $300 (14,387 contracts) and $310 (5,276 contracts), with the $300 strike dominating. That’s a bearish signal—like a crowd of traders betting the stock will crater below $300. But here’s the twist: the $310 puts have seen a block trade of 1,400 contracts expiring this Friday (JPM20260116P310), which could act as a temporary floor. Think of it as a safety net: if JPM falls toward $310, those puts might absorb some selling pressure.

On the call side, the top OTM strikes ($330, $335, $340) have open interest ranging from 6,197 to 8,166 contracts. That’s not a huge bullish bet, but it suggests some traders are eyeing a rebound. The MACD histogram (-0.26) and RSI (57.74) hint at a potential oversold bounce, but the 30D moving average at $319.86 is still a hurdle.

Earnings Miss and Trump’s Shadow: Can JPM Recover?

JPMorgan’s Q4 earnings were a mixed bag. The $2.2B Apple Card write-down dragged down results, but core earnings beat estimates. CEO Jamie Dimon’s comments about economic resilience and the bank’s record $182B in 2025 revenue are bullish. Yet, Trump’s proposed 10% credit card rate cap and the DOJ’s Fed probe are casting a cloud. The stock’s long-term trend (200D MA at $288.56) is up, but short-term risks are real. If the market discounts these political risks, JPM could rally on improved sentiment.

Trade Ideas: Play the $310 Floor or the $330 Breakout

For options traders:

• Bearish Play: Buy the JPM20260116P310 puts if JPM closes below $311.82 (lower Bollinger Band). Target a 10–15% move toward $300.
• Bullish Play: A call spread with JPM20260123C330 and JPM20260123P310 next week if the stock stabilizes above $314.83 (30D support).

For stock traders:

• Entry: Consider buying near $311.82 (lower Bollinger Band) if the 30D MA ($319.86) holds.
• Target: $314.83 (30D support) as a near-term goal, with a hard stop below $309.85 (200D support).

Volatility on the Horizon

JPMorgan’s stock is at a crossroads. The options market is pricing in a high probability of a test of $300, but the block trades and technical support at $310–$314.83 could spark a rebound. If the stock holds above $310, the long-term bulls might regain control. But if it breaks below $309.85, the bear case gets a lot stronger. Either way, the next 48 hours will be critical—especially with Trump’s policy proposals looming. Stay nimble, and watch those key levels like a hawk.