JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Options Signal $310 Bullish Bias: Here’s How to Play the Trump Lawsuit Narrative

• JPM is down 1.9% at $297.79, trading near its 200D MA ($290.98) but below key resistance at $300.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $310 (next Friday) and puts at $295, signaling a tug-of-war between bearish caution and bullish optimism.
• RSI at 34.85 (oversold) and MACD divergence hint at potential short-term rebound, but Bollinger Bands suggest volatility could linger.

The stock is caught in a tight squeeze between political drama and technical triggers. Here’s how to navigate it.Where Smart Money Is Bidding: Calls at $310, Puts at $295

The options market is split but leaning slightly bullish. For Friday expiration, the top call OI sits at $310 (4,753 contracts), while next Friday’s $310 strike (4,753 OI) and $320 strike (2,820 OI) show lingering optimism. On the put side, $295 (766 OI for next Friday) and $290 (1,044 OI) are key downside hedges. This suggests traders are hedging a potential pullback but eyeing a rebound above $300. The put/call ratio (0.95) for open interest leans slightly bullish, though heavy put volume at $295 warns of caution below $300.

Block trades are quiet today, so no whale moves to flag. But the $310 call OI concentration is telling: if JPM breaks above $300, this strike could act as a magnet for momentum players.

Trump Lawsuit Drama: Risk or Red Herring?

The $5B lawsuit is a reputational thorn for JPMorgan, but analysts argue it’s unlikely to dent earnings. JPM’s Q4 results ($5.23 EPS, $46.77B revenue) show resilience, and its AI-driven cost cuts are paying off. Still, the lawsuit amplifies regulatory scrutiny risks—something the options market is pricing in via the $295 put OI. Retail investors might overreact, but institutional buyers (like Eastern Bank’s 3.5% stake boost) suggest long-term confidence. The key question: Will the lawsuit keep JPM trapped below $300, or will earnings strength push it toward $310?

Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Safety Nets

• Bullish Play: Buy JPM20260130C310 (next Friday expiry) if JPM closes above $300 today. The $310 strike is a psychological hurdle; a break above $305 could trigger a rally toward $315–$320.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy JPM20260130P295 to protect against a drop below $298 (lower Bollinger Band). This strike offers decent leverage if the stock gaps down.
• Stock Entry: Consider buying JPM near $298 (support at 200D MA) with a stop-loss below $295. Target $310 if the 30D MA ($318.54) holds.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Risk and Reward

JPM’s chart is a chessboard of conflicting signals. The RSI’s oversold reading and MACD histogram divergence hint at a possible bounce, but the 30D support at $329.15 feels distant. The lawsuit adds noise, but JPM’s fundamentals remain sturdy. For traders, the sweet spot lies in straddling the $300–$310 range: long calls for upside, puts for downside, and a watchful eye on the 200D MA as a floor. If the stock holds above $295, the next 7–10 days could see a test of $315. But if it cracks $290, the bear case reasserts itself.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction setup. Play it with tight stops and position sizing that respects the political uncertainty. The market isn’t screaming “buy” or “sell”—it’s whispering “wait and see.” And that’s where the opportunity lies.