JPMorgan's Bitcoin Price Prediction Signals a Major Market Shift

JPMorgan analysts have identified a shift in bitcoin's role as a safe-haven asset. The cryptocurrency's lower volatility compared to gold has made it increasingly attractive to investors over the long term. This assessment follows a period of divergence between bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver.

Bitcoin has weakened into 2026, while gold surged more than 60% in 2025. The analysts suggest this reflects bitcoin's declining appeal as a hedge against market turmoil. The recent sell-off in digital assets, including bitcoin and ether ETFs, shows broad-based negative sentiment among both institutional and retail investors.

Despite the near-term weakness, JPMorgan analysts see long-term potential for bitcoin. Using a volatility-adjusted model, they argue that bitcoin could rise to a price of $266,000. This target is based on matching private-sector investment in gold, which is estimated at $8 trillion excluding central bank holdings.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin's volatility compared to gold has dropped to a record low, with the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio now at around 1.5. This makes bitcoin a more stable asset in comparison to gold, which saw sharp corrections in late 2025. The analysts note that bitcoin's lower volatility could position it as a more reliable store of value in the future.

Gold's strong performance was driven by central bank demand and flight-to-safety sentiment. Meanwhile, bitcoin struggled as investors shifted to other traditional hedges. This has led to a widening gap in performance and volatility between the two assets.

How Did Markets React?

The crypto market has seen renewed pressure in early 2026. Bitcoin's price has dropped to around $65,600, below its estimated production cost of $87,000. If prices remain below this level for an extended period, unprofitable miners could exit the market, further reducing production costs.

Spot bitcoin and ether ETFs have experienced outflows, reflecting weak sentiment. Ethereum ETFs have seen three times more outflows than bitcoin ETFs, indicating greater vulnerability for altcoins.

Stablecoin supply has also contracted recently, reinforcing the cautious mood. However, JPMorgan analysts suggest this is a natural reaction to a shrinking overall crypto market cap. Historically, the ratio of stablecoins to total crypto value tends to mean-revert.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The $266,000 price target for bitcoin is considered unrealistic in the near term. However, the analysts see it as a potential long-term scenario if negative sentiment reverses and bitcoin is once again viewed as a hedge against market volatility.

JPMorgan raised its long-term gold price target to $8,000–$8,500, reflecting a broader shift in commodity markets. This aligns with the analysts' view that bitcoin's long-term value could increase as it becomes a more attractive alternative to gold.

Liquidations in crypto derivatives markets have been relatively modest compared with the previous quarter. Perpetual futures activity has been less severe than the liquidation wave seen in October 2025. This suggests the market is stabilizing to some extent.

The analysts remain cautious on the near-term outlook but see bitcoin's evolving role as a potential catalyst for long-term growth. Institutional investors are being closely watched for signs of renewed confidence in the asset class.