JP Morgan Lowers Ardent Health Price Target to $15 Amid Neutral Rating

Ardent Health Partners, Inc.'s recent earnings report shows a significant boost due to the NM DPP program approval, but core topline growth was in line with expectations. Analyst Benjamin Rossi maintains a Hold rating, citing favorable outcomes from Medicaid program exemptions, but also regulatory risks and a smaller scale and lower-margin profile compared to peers. Rossi acknowledges the need for Ardent Health Partners to build a stronger track record with public markets investors to narrow the valuation gap.

Ardent Health Partners, Inc. (NYSE:ARDT) reported strong second-quarter earnings, driven by the New Mexico Directed Payment Program (DPP) approval, which provided a significant EBITDA benefit. The company's earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.52, beating market expectations by 126.1% [2]. Revenue climbed to $1.65 billion, an increase of 11.9% year-over-year, highlighting robust financial health and strategic direction [2].

While the company's core revenue growth aligned with management expectations at approximately mid-single-digit percentage year-over-year, the earnings boost was largely attributed to the New Mexico DPP approval. Excluding this benefit, Ardent’s core revenue growth remained in line with expectations [1]. The company maintained a healthy gross profit margin of 57.8% over the last twelve months, reflecting strong operational efficiency.

Analysts have mixed opinions on Ardent Health Partners' stock. JPMorgan lowered its price target to $15.00 from $18.00, citing the impact of Medicaid taxes and regulatory risks. The firm maintained its 2025 revenue estimate of $6,315 million but reduced its adjusted EBITDA forecast to $593 million from $597 million due to higher Medicaid supplemental taxes [1]. Analyst Benjamin Rossi maintains a Hold rating, acknowledging favorable outcomes from Medicaid program exemptions but also highlighting regulatory risks and a smaller scale and lower-margin profile compared to peers [2].

Ardent Health Partners' strategic focus on expanding its presence in urban markets, launching urgent care and imaging centers, and building joint ventures with academic medical partners has shown promise. The company successfully integrated 18 urgent care clinics earlier in 2025 and plans to open five more before year-end [2]. However, ongoing challenges in payor (insurance) claim approvals and outpatient surgery volumes remain areas of concern.

Looking ahead, Ardent Health Partners expects total revenue between $6.20 billion and $6.45 billion, adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) in the $575 million to $615 million range, and net income of $245 million to $285 million for FY2025 [2]. Investors will continue to monitor outpatient surgery trends, operating cost controls, and insurance claim denials, as well as the expansion of urgent care and imaging centers and the rollout of new technology tools.

References:
[1] https://ca.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/jpmorgan-lowers-ardent-health-partners-stock-price-target-to-15-on-medicaid-tax-impact-93CH-4149379
[2] https://www.aol.com/finance/ardent-health-ardt-q2-eps-202836385.html