Journalist's observation: The investment logic of ST stocks may have changed subtly
2min read ST stocks, including ST and *ST stocks, have recently experienced a consecutive rise, showing a "revival" trend.
Take the WIND ST Index as an example, which represents the performance of ST stocks. The index began to rebound since July this year, with a cumulative rise of more than 10%, significantly outperforming the overall performance of the A-share market in the same period. *ST Jingfeng, ST Lingda, *ST Jiayu and other ST stocks have even doubled from their lows this year.
The above phenomenon has led some investors to believe that the spring of ST stocks may be coming again. By carefully exploring the recent collective rise of ST stocks, it can be found that this wave of ST stocks' rise occurred after their tragic plunge in the first half of this year. According to information, the pressure of "ugly ducklings must meet their in-laws" brought by the intensive disclosure of annual reports in the first half of this year has led to a concentrated impact on ST and forced delisting, and investors have developed a collective avoidance mentality towards ST stocks, which has led to the overall continuous decline of the ST sector. After the annual reports were disclosed, the intensive delisting impact this year came to an end, allowing ST stocks to temporarily catch their breath.
Funding ST stocks or betting on their rebound has long been a "menu item" in the A-share market. However, I believe that with the changes in the market environment and institutional level in recent years, the underlying logic of investing in ST stocks may have quietly changed.
Firstly, ST stocks account for a large proportion of the final delisted stocks. With the strengthening of the A-share market's delisting efforts in recent years, the delisting risks faced by ST stocks have significantly increased, which directly reduces their investment appeal. According to data, the number of delisted companies in the A-share market has been in the single digits for a long time before 2020, and the number of delisted companies has exceeded 10 since 2020. By 2023, the number of delisted companies has exceeded 40, and the number of delisted companies in the A-share market has further increased this year, setting a new record.
Secondly, from the supply and demand perspective, the background for the easy speculation of ST stocks in the past was that shell resources were relatively scarce, and ST stocks often had the expectation of being taken over and restructured, while the market demand for shell resources was relatively hot. However, in the context of the full implementation of the registration system in the A-share market, on the one hand, ST stocks are constantly generated and the number is large; on the other hand, the market demand for shell resources is also decreasing. With the change in the supply and demand relationship, the market value of ST stocks as the largest supplier of shell resources has also decreased significantly.
Overall, when the risks of investing in ST stocks have significantly increased, and their investment value and appeal have decreased, the original investment basis may also change accordingly. Investors need to pay attention to such changes and should not "stick to the boat" and adhere to certain thinking.