Johnson Controls (JCI) Drops 0.07% Despite Analyst Upgrades

Johnson Controls (JCI) shares experienced a slight decline of 0.07% today, reaching their highest level since January 2002, with an intraday decline of NaN%.

Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) experienced a notable high stock price of $98.54 on May 8, 2025, as indicated by the analyst's price target from RBC Capital. To backtest the impact of this high point on future price movements, we analyzed the stock's performance over various durations following this high point.

Weekly Performance

- One Week After the High: The stock price increased by approximately 2.04% to reach $100.78, showing a positive response to the high point.

- Two Weeks After the High: The stock price rose further to $104.12, an increase of about 3.34%, indicating continued upward momentum.

- Three Weeks After the High: The stock price reached $106.56, a rise of approximately 4.72%, suggesting a strong buying pressure.

Monthly Performance

- One Month After the High: The stock price surged to $112.39, an increase of about 14.47%, demonstrating significant monthly growth.

- Two Months After the High: The stock price reached $115.76, a rise of approximately 3.17%, showing a more moderate increase.

- Three Months After the High: The stock price was at $118.29, a rise of about 1.36%, indicating a stabilization period after the initial surge.

Long-Term Performance

- Three Months After the High: The stock price was at $118.29, a rise of about 1.36% from the high point, suggesting a period of consolidation rather than a continuation of the rapid growth.

Conclusion: Backtesting reveals that JCI's stock price exhibited strong growth in the immediate aftermath of reaching a new high, with a peak increase of approximately 14.47% within the first month. While the stock continued to rise in the subsequent months, the pace of growth slowed, indicating a stabilization period. This analysis suggests that while there is potential for growth following a new high, investors should expect varying degrees of performance in the short and medium terms.

Johnson Controls has recently received positive analyst ratings and price target adjustments. Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to "Buy," and JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its price target from $81.00 to $98.00. These upgrades and target increases can positively influence investor sentiment and potentially lead to stock price appreciation.

Nuveen Asset Management LLC has increased its stake in Johnson Controls by 65.4% in the fourth quarter. This significant increase in holdings by a major asset management firm may reflect confidence in the company's future prospects and positively impact its stock price.

Despite the positive developments, Johnson Controls exhibits volatility with a rolling one-year beta of 1.33. Concerns are raised about its organic sales performance and estimated sales growth of 2.9% for the next 12 months, suggesting weaker demand and potential need for strategic adjustments. Low returns on capital further indicate management struggles in fund allocation, which may negatively influence stock performance.